Economic pain will be huge

Kazi Zahidul Hasan :
Bangladesh economy will face an enduring adverse impact if the Rohingya refugees could not be repatriated to their homelands within shortest possible time, warned economists on Monday.
They said, the government will have to allocate a significant fund from the budget for housing and feeding of the 5,36,000 Rohingya refugees, which may be an additional burden for the national exchequer.
“Bangladesh economy will face a significant adverse impact if Rohingya refugees are not repatriated soon,” Former Finance Adviser to the Caretaker Government Dr ABM Mirza Azizul Islam, told The New Nation yesterday.
He said the intensity of the impact would be more visible when flow of international aid will decrease. The current aid flow is also not enough as humanitarian assistance for all the refugees.
“Apart from increased spending on the budget for a short term, there may be quite significant pressure on the service delivery in the hosting communities in terms of access to health, water, education and sanitation due to the Rohingya refugees influx,” he noted.
He said the budget allocation of this fiscal (2017-18) might even fall short due to the latest Rohingya influx. The government will have to continue spending of huge amount of money to feed and shelter the refugees, requiring it to revise the budget and allocate money for this purpose.
Mirza Aziz further said that a longer stay by Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh might also lead to various socio-political problems in the host communities.
“The Rohingya influx will definitely bring an unexpected pressure on Bangladesh economy,” Lead Country Economist of World Bank’s Dhaka Office Dr Zahid Hussain, told The New Nation yesterday.
He said with such influx of Rohingyas (over half a million), there would not be a small-scale pressure, but we are yet to ascertain the extent of the impact on the economy. I think the impact will be huge.
“Dealing with the Rohingya crisis will put pressure on the government expenditure, create possibility of increasing inflation at the local level, but there is not so much possibility of raising inflation at the national level,” said Dr Zahid Hussain.
“Bangladesh may be able to manage the Rohingya refugees’ problem only as a short-term expedient. To manage the crisis to a long-term-expedient will associate with considerable economic implications,” said economist Dr Ahsan Monsur.
Referring to an estimate, he said, Bangladesh government will require Tk 6,400 crore to Tk 8,000 crore a year to provide basic services to the large number of Rohingya refugees.
 “The amount is the direct cost (food and health) and if the indirect cost is taken into consideration, the aggregate amount will be huge to sustain. So, it they are not repatriated soon, it will be a big burden for the economy,” he observed.
 “The host community is now experiencing a food price hike due to shortage of food grains as part of the immediate impact of the crisis. More crises may be unfolded if they stay here for a long period,” he warned.
The economists have urged the government to take pro-active diplomatic efforts involving regional and global players to strengthen further pressure on Myanmar authorities so that they come forward to take back Rohingyas immediately.
 “An early repatriation of Rohingya refugees will help Bangladesh avert a long-term economic pain,” they added.