ZAM Khairuzzaman :
Following the end of British rule in 1947 in the Indo-Pak-Bangla sub-continent, India appeared to be a terrible danger to the security of the entire South Asian nations. And, after the break-up of Pakistan in 1971, Indian policy in this region turned much more aggressive. After the humiliating defeat of Pakistan, Indian rulers became confident enough that they would be able to establish their lone influence in the entire region. During the post-’71 period, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh continuously struggled to maintain their sovereignty by countering the strategies of the regional big power.
Being a Muslim majority country, Bangladesh had to face the maximum of aggression from India following rise in extreme ‘Hindutva’ politics in that country. Because of continuous rule of fascist Hasina for 15 years, India virtually succeeded in turning Bangladesh into its own colony. So, after the fall of dictator Hasina, New Delhi started to play foul in full swing against Dhaka.
Indian government virtually waged an undeclared war against Bangladesh during the entire period of post-July revolution. It used all of their weapons against Bangladesh sans direct military intervention. India actually intended to totally destabilise the incumbent interim government led by its Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus with the help of its local collaborators. Not only the Indian threat, but Bangladesh faces multifarious geopolitical challenges. Now is the time to act too cautiously. However, realising the gravity of the situation, the Bangladesh Institute of Policy Studies (BIPS) organised a time-befitting seminar titled “Geopolitical Challenges and Strategic Imperatives for Post-Hasina Bangladesh” in the capital’s Jatiya Press Club recently. Dr CAF Dowlah, a distinguished international scholar, and the founder Chairperson of the BIPS, outlined some key challenges to encounter by Bangladesh.
These are as follows:
Recalibrating Foreign Policy and India’s Role
One of the foremost challenges facing post-Hasina Bangladesh is redefining its relationship with India, which remains its most influential neighbour. The Hasina administration fostered deep ties with India, leading to enhanced trade, physical and digital connectivity, and security cooperation. However, this close alignment also raised concerns, including unequal water-sharing agreements, border tensions, and trade imbalances.
The strategic imperative now is to diversify Bangladesh’s foreign policy, reducing overreliance on any single nation. However, this transition must be carefully managed to avoid straining relations with New Delhi, particularly if India perceives such shifts as undermining its geopolitical and economic interests. The position of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will also be crucial, as its stance on Bangladesh’s political transition could influence bilateral diplomatic and economic dynamics.
China’s Expanding Influence
China has substantially increased its footprint in Bangladesh through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), infrastructure investments, and deepening trade relations. Under Hasina, Bangladesh sought to balance its ties between India and China, but the post-Hasina government must now reassess these relationships.
Any realignment–whether towards India and the West or further engagement with Beijing–-carries inherent risks. A shift toward India and its Western allies could prompt economic countermeasures from China, including potential investment withdrawals. Conversely, a closer alignment with Beijing might strain ties with India and Western partners, complicating Bangladesh’s strategic positioning in the region.
US-Bangla Relations and Western Engagement
The United States has consistently emphasised human rights, democratic governance, and electoral transparency in its engagement with Bangladesh. The post-Hasina government may face greater Western scrutiny and demands for political and governance reforms. At the same time, Bangladesh must carefully balance its strategic interests with the Indo-Pacific security framework, trade relations, and economic cooperation with the West.
Key considerations in this engagement will include preferential trade agreements, access to the US and European markets, and remittance flows from expatriates in Western nations. Bangladesh must navigate these dynamics to secure economic and strategic benefits while preserving its sovereignty in policymaking.
Regional Stability and the Rohingya Crisis
The Rohingya refugee crisis remains a significant challenge, with unresolved diplomatic tensions between Bangladesh and Myanmar. Despite efforts under the Hasina administration, repatriation agreements with Myanmar have yielded little progress.
Post Hasina leadership may face additional pressure from the Myanmar junta, requiring robust diplomacy and coordination with ASEAN, the United Nations, and international human rights organisations to craft sustainable solutions. Bangladesh’s response will shape its regional standing and influence stability in the Bay of Bengal region.
Domestic Political and Economic Challenges
Internally, political instability, economic volatility, and governance transitions could pose significant risks. A fragmental political environment–marked by competing factions, electoral uncertainties, and governance reforms–may weaken Bangladesh’s global engagement. Economic challenges, including capital flight and declining investor confidence, could further complicate efforts to strengthen diplomatic and trade relations.
The ability of Bangladesh’s post–Hasina leadership to maintain stability, implement reforms, and foster international confidence will determine its long-term success in securing national security, economic prosperity, and diplomatic leverage on the global stage.
National and international conspirators are active enough to destabilise Bangladesh. Ever vigilance is the need of the hour. Bangladesh should maintain a balanced relationship with the regional and global powers. Extra-caution is essential to handle the Rohingya sitiuation.
Discussants at the seminar suggested for strengthening the psychological base of the problem-ridden nation. It especially stressed on the need for forging national unity imbibed with the spirit of patriotism to overcome the adversities. Holding a mere election will not suffice. Reforms in all sectors should precede the polls to stop the return of fascism. Corruption pervades everywhere. It is imperative to ensure the accountability and transparency in day-to-day activities of the political parties, constitutional agencies, government officials and employees and relevant stakeholders. Alongside, the entire educational system should be radically changed in such a manner so that it can help build the country anew, otherwise, the new independent Bangladesh attained by the sacrifice of thousands of students and mass people won’t be able reach its desired goal. There is no option, but to succeed.
(The writer is a senior journalist and columnist. E-mail: zamkhairz@gmail.com)
