Middle East conflict sticks 2026 consensus trades into reverse
Iran’s oil exports would stall and output halve if the US and Israel were to seize its port on Kharg Island, triggering further attacks from Tehran on regional oil infrastructure, JP Morgan said in a note.
Axios reported on Saturday that the US administration had discussed seizing the island, which sits some 30 km off Iran’s coast in the Gulf and processes 90 per cent of its crude exports.
“A direct strike would immediately halt the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure,” JP Morgan said.
Iran, the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumps about 4.5 per cent of global oil supplies, with output of about 3.3 million barrels per day of crude, plus 1.3 million bpd of condensate and other liquids.
During the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, US President Jimmy Carter imposed sanctions on Iran but refrained from ordering strikes on the island.
His successor, Ronald Reagan, during the 1980s Iran-Iraq Tanker War, prioritised protecting shipping and targeting Iranian vessels and missile batteries, leaving Kharg untouched.
“Although Iraqi forces struck some terminals and tankers during the eight-year war, Kharg remained largely operational and damage was typically repaired quickly, demonstrating that disabling it would require sustained, large-scale attacks,” JP Morgan said.
The island collects oil coming by pipeline from Iran’s largest producing fields, including Ahvaz, Marun and Gachsaran.
In the days leading up to ?the US-Israeli attack, Iran ramped up exports from Kharg to near record levels, loading over 3 million bpd over February 15-20, nearly triple its normal export pace of around 1.3 million to 1.6 million.
Storage capacity on Kharg is estimated at roughly 30 million barrels and, according to Kpler, approximately 18 million barrels of crude are currently stored on the island, equivalent to roughly 10-12 days of exports under normal conditions.
Oil prices jumped to $119 per barrel on Monday as production cuts in the Middle East spread with Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all affected.
