Dr. Forqan Uddin Ahmed :
The upcoming budget will be passed by the Parliament at the end of June 2024.
Budget, What matters for? Is budget size or fiscal year a matter? Today’s Bangladesh is a country of emerging economy. So, its budget size is not a factor. But how it is handled or implemented, this matters.
Fiscal year, the other side, again is a matter to some experts or analysts. So the fiscal year may be changed as a test case. Every year the budget comes, the budget goes. Budget should speak to the good of the common people.
Budget must reflect the interest of the have-nots, education for all, to reduce discrimination of the poor and the rich. If the poor become poorer with the systematic problem of the budget, the soundness of the budget will be lost.
Again the budget will lose its dignity and identity of glamour. Benefit must go to the court of commoners. Budget must have its vision.
It must widen the quality of lives. General livelihood might be enhanced. It can’t be invisible. It must not be kept in papers or limited to four walls. It must be made target oriented with a group of skilled manpower and experts.
Its implementation must be made honest and transparent with good leadership, coordination and planning.
Bangladesh is mainly an agricultural based country.
The amount of allocated money shown in the proposed budget for this sector seemed to me not rational.
For modernization of agriculture this amount of money is not adequate to meet the actual demand. In reality, farmer’s interests will be ignored. So how could we say that it is a people- centric budget?
However, this sector’s allocation needs to be addressed and reviewed by enhancing its budget volume with subsidies in fertilizer, insecticides and purchase of modern agricultural equipment.
Again, through the mega projects like Rupgonj Power plant, Railway and road transport sector projects may help the country to achieve its sustainable development goal and by which the vision 2030 will be in a process to be materialized.
Again we have the dream of achieving developed nation by 2041. So if we do not sow the seeds from now it will be difficult to attain the goal of 2041. So these mega projects are the beginning of our journey towards a developed nation.
Bangladesh tells a remarkable story of poverty reduction and development. From being one of the poorest nations at birth in 1971, Bangladesh reached lower-middle income status in 2015.
It is on track to graduate from the UN’s Least Developed Countries (LDC) list in 2026. Poverty declined from 11.8 percent in 2010 to 5.0 percent in 2022, based on the international poverty line of $2.15 a day (using 2017 Purchasing Power Parity and a comparable welfare series). Similarly, moderate poverty declined from 49.6 percent in 2010 to 30.0 percent in 2022, based on the international poverty line of $3.65 a day (using 2017 PPP).
Moreover, human development outcomes improved along many dimensions, like a reduction in infant mortality and stunting, and an increase in literacy rates and access to electricity. Despite these gains, inequality has slightly narrowed in rural areas and widened in urban areas.
To achieve its vision of attaining upper middle-income status by 2031, Bangladesh needs to create jobs through a competitive business environment, increase human capital and build a skilled labor force, build efficient infrastructure, and establish a policy environment that attracts private investment.
Development priorities include diversifying exports beyond the RMG sector; resolving financial sector vulnerabilities; making urbanization more sustainable and strengthening public institutions, including fiscal reforms to generate more domestic revenue for development.
We have seen problems in the areas of quality, implementation and predictability.
In the implementation stage, there should be thorough monitoring and supervision. After that it is to be evaluated with its repeated exercise.
Again all ADP budgets should be well examined, scrutinized, investigated properly by a panel of experts.
Finally, budget execution must be maintained with proper discipline, sincerity, top most honesty and purity.
Budget should not be declared as a govt. budget. It must be reflected as peoples’ budget.
No pilferage should be allowed to direct it in a bad shape. If there is strong coordination, good governance and capability to manage a budget will appear befitting and can reach its goal with its efficient management. And in the long run, budget will be result oriented.
The government should exercise caution while attempting to reduce expenditure, ensuring that it does not result in a drastic decline in government spending, a contraction of domestic demand, or a negative impact on investment.
This is crucial because a combination of high inflation and weak economic growth can worsen the current situation. It is imperative for the government to increase its expenditure in crucial areas such as healthcare, education, and social protection.
The social sector has been chronically neglected due to insufficient efforts in revenue generation and competing priorities, particularly in physical infrastructure.
Finally, we can say that the budget is nothing but a statement of yearly expenditure and income. Budget preparation is not such a difficult task. But its implementation is a challenging factor.
Every year we see many remarkable comments about the budget. Such as: Is the budget for the poor, is the budget for the rich and what are the pondering points of the budget? How is the budget to be classified and so all? However, the budget speaks for all the people of the country.
The budget should focus on poverty alleviation. Above all, the budget should be made clean and transparent, well supervised and well monitored.
(The author is former Deputy Director General, Bangladesh Ansar and VDP, columnist and researcher.)