Trump’s tariff hike can expand Bangladesh exports to US: WTO

Staff Reporter :

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has observed that the United States’ tariff hikes under President Donald Trump could present an opportunity for Bangladesh to boost its exports to the US.

In its latest ‘Global Trade Outlook and Statistics’ report, the WTO noted that Least Developed Countries (LDCs) like Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Lesotho may benefit from the shift in US import patterns, particularly in sectors like clothing, textiles, and electronic equipment-areas where China currently holds a dominant share.

According to the report, world merchandise trade volume is projected to decline by 0.2% in 2025 if the US maintains its suspension of reciprocal tariffs. However, the situation could worsen, with trade shrinking by 1.5% if tariff tensions escalate.

“The outlook for global trade has deteriorated sharply due to rising tariffs and heightened trade policy uncertainty (TPU),” the WTO said. As of April 14, with suspended reciprocal tariffs still in place, global merchandise trade is expected to drop slightly this year before rebounding with a 2.5% increase in 2026.

This 2025 forecast is nearly three percentage points lower than earlier estimates, signaling a reversal from expectations of continued trade expansion earlier in the year. The WTO attributed this downgrade to recent policy shifts, which have made forecasting difficult due to the lack of comparable historical events and limited data.

The report also highlighted the risks of reintroducing reciprocal tariffs and a broader spread of TPU, which could reduce global trade growth by a combined 1.4 percentage points-posing added challenges for LDCs.

While trade in services is not directly affected by tariffs, the WTO warned that it could suffer indirectly. A decline in goods trade would weaken demand for services like transport and logistics, while broader economic uncertainty could dampen discretionary spending and investment.

As a result, global commercial services trade is projected to grow by just 4% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026-well below previous forecasts of 5.1% and 4.8%. This is the first time the WTO report has included forecasts for services trade, which until now focused only on merchandise.

The US-China trade disruption is also expected to cause significant trade diversion. Chinese exports are projected to rise by 4-9% across regions outside North America, while US imports from China-especially in textiles, apparel, and electronics-are expected to drop. This opens up opportunities for other exporting nations.

Despite the gloomy forecast for 2025, 2024 saw a relatively strong performance: merchandise trade rose 2.9%, and services trade jumped 6.8%. Global GDP grew by 2.8%, marking the first time since 2017 (excluding the post-pandemic rebound) that trade growth outpaced economic output.

In value terms, global merchandise exports increased by 2% to $24.43 trillion, though this reflected lower average prices. Commercial services exports rose by 9% to $8.69 trillion, driven by strong sectoral demand.

Meanwhile, Commerce Adviser Sk. Bashir Uddin has announced that a high-level delegation will travel to the United States next week to discuss the counter-tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

He made the statement on Wednesday (April 16) at a discussion organized by the Bangladesh Secretariat Reporters Forum (BSRF), held at the media center of the Secretariat, titled ‘37% Tariff Imposed by the U.S.: Challenges, Opportunities, and Government Actions.’

The adviser said, ‘The delegation will include our Economic Adviser, the Principal Adviser’s Special Assistant, the Commerce Secretary, and other relevant officials. They will meet with those in the U.S. who deal with tariffs, particularly the United States Trade Representative (USTR), to identify specific actions regarding tariff and non-tariff issues.’

The meeting was presided over by BSRF President Fasih Uddin Mahtab and moderated by BSRF General Secretary Masudul Haque.

He said, ‘We know this counter-tariff has been suspended for 90 days. So, what actions should we take during this period? The Chief Adviser is personally aware of this issue. Among the countries we trade with-especially those where our exports are higher than imports-the United States is significant. As a buyer, the U.S. is our largest single-country customer. Therefore, this is a matter of concern for us. When the U.S. assesses its trade deficit, it does so in terms of goods, not services. That’s why we’ve developed a set of action plans.’

He further said, “With this action plan, a delegation comprising the Chief Adviser’s Special Assistant, the Economic Adviser, and the Commerce Secretary will travel to the U.S. next week. They will hold discussions with the USTR, who handles these tariff issues, and work to identify more specific steps through both tariff and non-tariff frameworks.”