Dr. Forqan Uddin Ahmed :
After Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election, the global impact would likely be profound, marked by a continued shift toward nationalism and unilateralism in US foreign policy.
Domestically, his victory would likely signal a reinforcement of his “America First” agenda, with an emphasis on economic protectionism, tax cuts, and deregulation, particularly in the energy and manufacturing sectors. The US would probably maintain its stance on limiting immigration, reducing government oversight in business, and shifting focus away from global climate initiatives and multilateral agreements.
Internationally, Trump’s victory would likely lead to a more isolationist and transactional approach in foreign policy. Relations with traditional allies such as NATO and the European Union might be strained further as Trump continues to demand that other nations contribute more to their own defense and reduce dependence on US military support. On the economic front, Trump could reinvigorate trade protectionism, imposing tariffs or negotiating new trade deals that prioritize American interests, especially with China.
His continued skepticism of international organizations like the UN and World Health Organization might further erode global cooperation on issues like health crises, climate change, and global security. In contrast, his administration would likely continue to strengthen bilateral relations with nations like Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Middle Eastern allies, possibly broadening the scope of Abraham Accords-type agreements. Trump’s foreign policy would likely also take a harder stance on China, advocating for trade decoupling and aggressive economic measures, which could escalate tensions with Beijing.
Globally, a Trump victory would likely lead to economic uncertainty in markets dependent on American leadership, while accelerating geopolitical shifts in areas like the Asia-Pacific and Middle East. The US withdrawal from international agreements like the Paris Climate Accordand possibly theWorld Trade Organization (WTO) could prompt more regional trade alliances and environmental pacts outside of US influence.
Trump’s leadership would push the world further toward great power competition, particularly with China and Russia, and could lead to more protectionist policies worldwide, reshaping global supply chains and economic partnerships. For many countries, a second Trump term would signal a reassertion of national sovereignty, leading to a rethinking of global governance and a push for policies that protect domestic industries and interests over international cooperation.
Trump’s Middle East policy would likely aim at a reduced US footprint, a focus on energy independence, and an overarching desire to limit American involvement in “endless wars”. He might also push for more arms deals with regional allies like Saudi Arabia to enhance their defense capabilities, further cementing the US’s role as a key supplier of military power in the region.
Ultimately, his approach would be characterized by a balance of realpolitik, regional alliances, and a determination to confront adversaries without committing to large-scale military operations.Trump would probably reaffirm his commitment to Israel’s right to self-defense, likely endorsing Israeli military actions against Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza in response to rocket attacks or other security threats.
At the same time, he would likely emphasize the need for Arab states to take a more active role in addressing the root causes of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, encouraging countries like Egypt and Jordan to exert influence over Palestinian leadership and push for peace initiatives.
Trump’s policy on South Asia would likely continue the pragmatic, security-focused approach he took during his first term, emphasizing counterterrorism, economic partnerships, and strategic alliances while seeking to limit direct US military involvement in the region.
Trump’s policy would likely maintain strong support for India as a key partner in the Indo-Pacific, viewing India as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the region. This could mean deepening defenseties, trade relations, and technology transfers, while continuing to push India to play a larger role in regional security, particularly with respect to the Indo-Pacific and counterterrorism efforts.
Trump would likely seek to strengthen US-India relations through defense agreements like Lemoa and Comcasa, and might continue to advocate for India’s growing role in international forums such as the Quad (with the US, Japan, and Australia) and the United Nations.
At the same time, Trump’s policy would likely maintain sanctions on Russia to deter further aggression, though he would likely seek to reduce tensions and push for a more neutral or non-confrontational approach with Moscow.
Trump’s administration would likely continue to support NATO, but he would be critical of the alliance’s expansion and its involvement in Ukraine, arguing that European nations should bear more of the security burden and not expect the US to be the primary guarantor of their defense. Trump’s approach would probably emphasize limiting the conflict’s spillover effects on the US, such as through economic sanctions on Russia and diplomatic pressure, while avoiding direct US military intervention.
Trump’s legacy remains highly contentious. Some analysts see his presidency as a reactionary period, where many of the gains of the post-Cold War era – particularly in the realm of international cooperation, social justice, and progressive reforms – were undermined.
This time, there may be a changed scenario. Others argue that Trump’s time in office exposed deep divisions in American society, challenged the status quo, and shifted the political landscape in ways that will have long-term consequences.Supporters see Trump as a transformative figure who broke the mold of establishment politics and delivered on promises to “drain the swamp” and put America first. Critics argue that his administration’s disregard for norms, divisive rhetoric, and controversial policies weakened democratic institutions and damaged the country’s international standing.
It is assumed that, Trump is a practical man by nature. At times, he fails to maintain his temperament and faces criticism. If anything goes wrong in his tenure regarding racial issue, national or International deal, he may be impeached as happened in the past. However, our best wishes to newly elected President Trump. We expect president Trump as a good friend, an ideal and balanced world leader warm bilateral relationship will be built up between Bangladesh and USA.
(The writer is former Deputy Director General, Bangladesh Ansar and VDP).