The IRC Bloc and South Asia’s Geopolitical Future: Bangladesh at the Crossroads

Emran Emon :

In the theatre of global geopolitics, the script is shifting—and rapidly. The world watches with bated breath as a once-unthinkable triangle begins to form: India, Russia, and China (IRC bloc). The stage is set in Beijing, where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to visit amidst rising bilateral tensions with the United States, especially over the 50% tariff retaliation. Russian President Vladimir Putin is already in town, conferring with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The symbolism is striking, but the signals are even louder: a potential strategic bloc—India–Russia–China (IRC)—may be emerging in real time.
What was once deemed geopolitically impossible now appears not just plausible, but probable. The longstanding hostilities between India and China have always stood in the way of such a coalition. Yet, history has repeatedly shown us that in international relations, interests trump emotions, and necessity dissolves even the thickest mistrust.
At the heart of this evolving alliance lies the most persistent barrier: the India–China rivalry. From border skirmishes to the bloody Galwan Valley clash, from trade imbalances to competing regional influence, the Indo-Chinese relationship has remained one of strategic hostility masked by transactional diplomacy. For decades, they have operated as competitors for dominance in Asia rather than partners in cooperation.
But if Russia can serve as a shrewd mediator—either overtly or discreetly—and ease the geopolitical friction between New Delhi and Beijing, then a new axis may begin to rotate: not Washington–London–Brussels, but Delhi–Moscow–Beijing. In such a scenario, the Global South will have a counterweight, not just to the West’s political supremacy but to its financial systems, military networks, and ideological narratives. This is not simply an economic or military alignment; it is the birth of an alternative global vision. And in that vision, South Asia—long the arena of great power games—will find itself more entangled than ever before.
Bangladesh: At the Crossroads of a New Power Game
Bangladesh, situated at the epicenter of the Indo-Pacific chessboard, is no longer a passive observer in global affairs. It has become a strategic corridor, a geo-economic prize, and a regional actor in its own right. China and India already see Bangladesh as a sensitive hub—one for influence, access, and ideological leverage. Now, with Russia entering this equation through a potential IRC alignment, the stakes are even higher.
In this scenario, Bangladesh’s longstanding foreign policy of “friendship to all, malice towards none” will be tested like never before. The days of diplomatic tightrope-walking may soon be over. A functional IRC bloc will likely demand clearer positioning, strategic alignment, and political loyalty from countries within its sphere of influence—including Bangladesh.
The West, particularly the United States, already sees Bangladesh as a swing state in the Indo-Pacific. With Washington pushing its own digital trade deals, military pacts, and human rights pressure points, Dhaka may find itself squeezed between two competing global orders.
What’s unfolding is not just a regional rearrangement—it is a high-stakes geopolitical reboot. South Asia is entering a new “Big Game,” where influence is measured not merely in territory or treaties but in ports, pipelines, data routes, and digital infrastructures.
If the IRC triangle solidifies, the region’s existing power balance could tilt dramatically:
Pakistan would benefit from China’s protective umbrella and Russia’s growing engagement with Islamabad. Sri Lanka, grappling with economic recovery and debt dependency, might see the IRC bloc as a financial lifeline. Nepal and Bhutan, traditionally under India’s orbit, could face pressure to reassess their foreign policy orientation. Myanmar, diplomatically isolated and internally unstable, would lean further into the Eastern axis. Bangladesh, meanwhile, would face choices it can no longer postpone.
The phrase “good relations with all” may remain rhetorically relevant, but in strategic terms, it may soon lose its functional utility. The IRC bloc, if realized, will present both promises and perils:
Opportunities: Investment in connectivity, energy corridors, and infrastructure; alternatives to Western financial institutions; diversified trade routes.
Challenges: Diplomatic coercion; strategic expectations (such as military base access or regional support); and conditional economic engagement.
Simply put, Bangladesh will need to articulate a much clearer, interest-based foreign policy—one rooted in sovereignty, pragmatism, and regional responsibility.
Unlike smaller states caught in great power contests, Bangladesh has agency—geographic, demographic, and economic. The key question is whether it can exercise that agency wisely.
An IRC bloc may demand a strategic response from Dhaka in the following areas:
Security & Defense: Will Bangladesh be pressured into joining a new security architecture under IRC’s umbrella? How will it balance existing relationships with Western military donors and intelligence partners?
Trade & Infrastructure: Will Dhaka be pulled deeper into Chinese-led infrastructure networks like the BRI, or will it leverage Russian energy and Indian trade corridors for diversified benefit?
Diplomatic Autonomy: Can Bangladesh push back against imposed alignments while still benefiting from all sides? This requires skilled diplomacy and policy coherence—both often lacking in South Asian politics.
Let’s not forget that any consolidation of an IRC bloc will provoke responses from the other side—namely the United States and its allies. Sanctions, strategic downgrades, visa restrictions, and pressure on multilateral financing may all be in the West’s toolkit if countries like Bangladesh tilt too far east. That said, the IRC bloc presents a narrative many in the Global South have long waited for: a multipolar world where Asia is not a battlefield but a center of gravity.
Bangladesh must now decide—quietly, carefully, and strategically—whether it wishes to remain a spectator, a pawn, or an active player in this unfolding realignment.
If this India–Russia–China alignment takes concrete form, it will mark a historic shift not just for Asia, but for the entire global order. The unipolar moment that began in the early 1990s is definitively ending. What replaces it will not be smooth or symmetrical—but it will be consequential.
For Bangladesh, the choice is no longer binary. It’s not East vs. West. It’s about crafting a future where national interest, regional peace, and global engagement coexist—without surrendering sovereignty or inviting dependency. That requires clarity. That requires courage. And above all, it requires leadership that can look beyond the short-term headlines and see the long arc of history that is unfolding in real time.

(The writer is a journalist, columnist and global affairs analyst.
He can be reached at
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