Md. Zillur Rahaman :
Decision making is the process of determining the correct and best way to solve a problem. Sufficient data is required to make reliable decisions. Making decisions through judgment and analysis of information and data increases the likelihood that it will be fruitful. So information and data are collected to take any decision.
Therefore, the importance of accurate and reliable data in decision making is immense. Both primary and secondary data are used in decision making, but any data should be accurate, reliable and realistic.
But the official statistics of Bangladesh were suspected for a long time. Especially, despite achieving continuous economic growth, the main indicators of the economy were being questioned due to the lack of job creation in the country as expected. After AHM Mustafa Kamal took charge as Planning Minister in 2014, the statistical breakdown became more evident.
A syndicate of five-six people is involved in various important data manipulation processes including price inflation. At that time, there were allegations that the data of various economic indicators was inflated and shown in a fabricated manner. The statistical difference continues to increase with international organizations as well. This trend continued in the full regime of the previous Awami League government.
According to the World Bank, between 2015 and 2019, only 3.5 percent excess growth was shown and the then Planning Minister Lotus Kamal alias Mustafa Kamal is believed to be the mastermind behind providing these fabricated data. He created a tainted chapter by distorting the statistical data which is rare and unprecedented not only in the history of Bangladesh but also in the history of the world!
Economists say the country’s statistics, which were run from the highest levels of the state, were involved in the political economy, an unprecedented event in the country’s history. As a result, fake growth was consistently shown in line with the five-year plan. But there was no similarity with the collective data.
Distorted and fabricated statistics are provided by systematic changes mainly due to political decisions. The country’s economy has suffered because of policy decisions based on these wrong data. After the new government assumed responsibility, the evasion of these blessings is being observed in various sectors of the economy.
It is known that the World Bank publishes scores considering the statistical performance of different countries in the world. Such a list is created by considering 25 indicators. Bangladesh scored 80 out of 100 in the Statistical Capacity Indicator published in 2014, but since then it has been steadily declining. In 2018, the score dropped sharply to 62.
It dropped to 60 in 2020, while South Asia’s average score was 69. At that time, Bangladesh suffered the biggest decline in the methodology index, which dropped by more than half from a score of 70 in 2014 to a score of 30 in 2020 due to distortions and fabrication of statistics.
According to the report of the newspaper, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), an organization under the Ministry of Planning, prepares and publishes all kinds of official statistics of the country. After taking charge of the Ministry, Lotus Kamal established his sole control over BBS. At that time, he also took control of the responsibility of publishing monthly inflation through the organization. Later, the manpower of one of the most important CPI branches of BBS was also changed. Appointed are his best loyal and blessed ones.
Talking to the current and former directors of BBS, it is known that in the last decade and a half there was no situation to talk about in the institution. Anyone who raised the slightest objection or tried to speak about the statistics was transferred outside Dhaka or to a less important branch. Even departmental cases are filed for gratuitous harassment.
In terms of reality, statistics is a recognized science in the present world, based on which all the future plans of the country, nation, and corporate world are formulated. Any data, analysis or decision without statistics is now completely useless. Data has many uses in modern agriculture, industry, business and commerce.
Statistician Zia Hasan wrote a book in 2022 titled ‘The Untold History of the Economy of a Decade of Development Illusion’ about the misleading statistics of the country. The expatriate author, in the book that evoked response, highlighted the futility of government statistics through systematic explanation. Regarding the statistical manipulation, he told the media, “There was a trend of showing continuous growth from the top level of the country. Statistics of the country were involved in the political economy.
So even though the five-year plan showed growth well, it did not match the macro data. If growth increases, employment should increase but while industrial growth was shown, employment growth was shown in agriculture. If employment does not increase again, industry is expected to undergo massive mechanization. But we didn’t see it that way either.
Economists say that the consequences of data distortion are like driving blindfolded or seeing elephants for the blind. Data gives an accurate and reliable perception of reality. On what basis the country will run, it says the statistics. But if the policy is decided on the basis of wrong data, the country will suffer somewhere, as it appears now.
Moreover, pollution is being caught in all statistics including revenue and exports. The tainted chapter that the late dictator Hasina’s government created by distorting the statistics is rare and unprecedented not only in the history of Bangladesh, but also in the history of the world! All the policy makers concerned with this in future should be careful and aware.
(The writer is a banker and columnist, [email protected])