The recent ascendancy of the Arakan Army in Myanmar’s Rakhine State has fundamentally altered the geopolitical landscape along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.
This newspaper on Tuesday reported that the group is now controlling the 271-km stretch. Bangladesh faces a dual challenge: a national security threat and a humanitarian crisis that demands urgent attention.
Historically, Bangladesh’s foreign policy towards Myanmar has relied heavily on engagement with its central government, including the military junta responsible for the Rohingya genocide.
This approach has proven ineffective, as the junta has repeatedly failed to honour repatriation agreements, leaving over 730,000 Rohingya refugees in limbo.
The rise of the Arakan Army complicates matters further, as it now serves as the de facto authority in much of Rakhine, impacting cross-border security and refugee flows.
Despite the gravity of the situation, Dhaka’s response has been lacklustre. The Foreign Ministry’s reluctance to engage with nonstate actors like the Arakan Army reflects a traditional diplomatic mindset that is ill-suited to the current realities.
The junta’s escalating violence, including reports of beheadings and torture, underscores its indifference to humanitarian concerns, making it clear that meaningful negotiations are unlikely.
Arakan Army has shown a willingness to govern and negotiate, expressing a vision for an inclusive Rakhine that could potentially accommodate both Buddhist Rakhine and Rohingya populations.
While caution is warranted, engaging with the Arakan Army could provide a pragmatic avenue for addressing the Rohingya crisis.
However, this engagement is fraught with risks, including the group’s fluid political aspirations and unresolved tensions with the Rohingya. Any dialogue must prioritise the protection of Rohingya rights to ensure they are not sidelined in future governance frameworks.
Moreover, Bangladesh must navigate the geopolitical implications of such engagement, particularly concerning its relationships with regional powers like China and India.
A multifaceted strategy is essential; combining strengthened border security with efforts to ensure humanitarian aid reaches those in need. Bangladesh must leverage the Arakan Army’s rise to demand increased global support for immediate relief and long-term solutions.
The status quo is no longer viable. By recognising the Arakan Army’s authority and adopting a flexible, pragmatic approach, Bangladesh can better safeguard its national interests and contribute to regional stability.
The cost of inaction is too high, both for Bangladesh and the countless Rohingya whose futures hang in the balance.
