News Desk :
As the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP) approaches its expected commercial launch in early 2026, concerns are growing among energy experts regarding its financial viability. Many are questioning whether the high cost of the project could turn it into a “white elephant.”
The idea for the RNPP project was conceived in 2009, with a Memorandum of Understanding signed between Bangladesh and the Russian Federation on May 13, 2009, for the “Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy.”
Subsequently, on January 15, 2013, an agreement was signed for a State Export Credit of US$ 500 million to finance the preparatory construction works for the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, reports UNB Official data indicates that the construction cost of the Rooppur NPP is expected to total $12.65 billion, as per the contract with Russia’s state nuclear agency Rosatom.
Of this, Russia will finance $11.385 billion, covering 90 per cent of the total cost.
The agreement stipulates that the loan will be provided at an interest rate of six-month Libor plus 1.75 per cent per annum, with the rate not exceeding 4 per cent. Bangladesh is expected to repay the loan within 28 years, following a 10-year grace period.
When the contract was signed in 2016, the dollar exchange rate was below Tk 84, with the total cost estimated at Tk 101,200 crore. However, the exchange rate has now risen above Tk 121, pushing the cost to Tk 153,635 crore – a more than 50 per cent increase in local currency.
Initially, Rosatom stated that the plant, with a capacity of 2400 MW, would begin operations with the first 1200 MW unit in 2022, followed by the second unit in 2023. However, the first unit has yet to commence commercial operations, and the second unit is unlikely to begin before 2027.
The Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC), overseeing the project, has yet to determine the electricity tariff to be generated by the RNPP. Even the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), which will purchase electricity from the plant, is uncertain about the tariff.
Rooppur NPP Project Director Dr. Md. Zahedul Hassan acknowledged the issue and stated that the RNPP authority is preparing a tariff paper to initiate negotiations with BPDB.
He added that a joint workshop was held almost two years ago with BPDB officials to provide them with an understanding of the possible tariff rate. However, they were unable to provide comprehensive information on the total cost, including decommissioning.
A senior BPDB official shared that preliminary calculations suggest the tariff for electricity from RNPP could be no less than Tk X per unit. However, there has been ongoing confusion regarding the levelised tariff (the cost of electricity per unit over the project’s lifecycle).
At the start of the project, officials suggested the tariff would be around $0.04 per kilowatt-hour (approximately Tk 3.50), based on an exchange rate of Tk 80. However, Russian experts had estimated an even lower tariff of $0.0319, or 3.2 cents.
Despite these early projections, local power tariff experts believe the actual tariff will be much higher. Mizanur Rahman, a former member of the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) and a renowned power tariff expert, estimates the tariff could exceed $0.08 to $0.10 (8-10 US cents) per unit.
Rahman calculates that considering the full project cost of $13.2 billion (including construction and feasibility study costs) and factoring in operational, fuel price, and decommissioning costs, the tariff would be around $0.085, or Tk 9-10 per unit, assuming an exchange rate of Tk 109. If the dollar rate increases further, the tariff could rise above Tk 10 per unit.
According to Rahman, during the loan repayment period, the production cost per unit of electricity could rise to US 12-13 cents. However, after the repayment period, the cost could fall to 5-6 cents per unit.
BPDB officials added that loan repayment will begin in March 2027, with Bangladesh paying $1.36 billion annually over the following 20 years in 40 installments, averaging $680 million per year for both principal and interest.
As the plant nears its completion, uncertainties regarding its tariff and overall financial impact remain a significant concern.
