Thailand's politics: Out of luck

The Economist, Bangkok :AFTER 1,000 days in power, Yingluck Shinawatra’s time as prime minister came to an abrupt end on May 7th at the hands of the country’s Constitutional Court. Its judges ruled that she had abused her office and had to step down, together with nine of her cabinet ministers. And so the court succeeded where months of street protests had failed in ousting the leader of the Pheu Thai party and younger sister of Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister removed in a military coup in 2006 whose shadow still falls over Thailand. The court’s decision only widens divisions in the country’s politics. Divining a peaceful way out of the present crisis is not easy.The court ruled that Ms Yingluck had provided insufficient justification for removing the national security chief whom she inherited from the previous government when she took over in 2011, following a landslide election victory. In replacing him with a family member she had abused her power and had to go.The government was prepared, quickly announcing that the minister of commerce, Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan, was to take over as caretaker prime minister. Ms Yingluck had herself been a caretaker prime minister since dissolving parliament in December ahead of a general election in February. After her victory in that election was annulled on March 21st by the same court, she had merely continued her caretaking. Her misery may be compounded by  another ruling soon, this time from the anti-corruption commission. It could demand that Ms Yingluck be indicted over a disastrous rice-pledging scheme. Mr Niwatthumrong might be indicted, too.In the minds of her “red-shirt” supporters, it only confirms how the judicial system is set against them. They see the judges as part of the ultraroyalist, “yellow-shirt”, Bangkok-based establishment that has long undermined Thaksinite governments, all democratically elected and mainly representing the rural poor of the north and north-east. The Pheu Thai party calls the May 7th verdict a “judicial coup”.The more militant red shirts may now follow through on their promises and take to the streets in mass protest rallies. The risk is of violent confrontation with their anti-government opponents. The army may be forced to intervene, perhaps not even-handedly. Thus a cycle of political violence that has plagued Thailand for a decade could continue and even intensify.For their part, the remaining Pheu Thai cabinet ministers will try to hang tough without Ms Yingluck, pinning their hopes on yet another election, as early as possible. Sean Boonpracong, a government adviser, says that the verdict was “pretty much as expected…Yingluck has to go, but not the Pheu Thai government. It stays in power and the election process is on.” Mr Thaksin’s parties, Pheu Thai or its predecessors, with their mass support in the rural heartlands, have always won a majority at elections. So it is in Pheu Thai’s interest to get on with holding the next election as soon as possible. July 20th had been chosen as the election date before Ms Yingluck was ousted.Not so fast, says the opposition. The anti-government street mobs, the self-styled People’s Democratic Reform Committee led by a former member of parliament, Suthep Thaugsuban, as well as the biggest opposition party, the Democrat Party (of which Mr Suthep was once a member), both want to see some vaguely formulated “reform” before any more elections are held. They are unlikely to change tack now. Mr Suthep has always demanded that Ms Yingluck should resign. But he has also insisted on a prime minister appointed by a “people’s council”, his own idea of the great and the good, rather than just another Pheu Thai placeman.Likewise Mr Suthep wants to eradicate all influence of the immensely wealthy Shinawatra clan from politics. So Ms Yingluck’s merely stepping down will not appease him or his supporters. They will not accept the legitimacy of the new caretaker prime minister, since in their eyes little has changed. They will stay on the streets, risking-or provoking-dust-ups with red-shirt foot-soldiers.Meanwhile, the Democrat Party boycotted the election in February and is likely to do so again if the government sticks with its election date. One of the party’s leaders, Korn Chatikavanij, a former finance minister, says that “to blindly move to an election date now…would be disastrous.” The Democrats too will demand changes before any election, making an early poll most unlikely. If the opposition were to decide to boycott the election again, the court seems bound to annul the result once more.Both sides of the political divide now have almost no faith left in the mediating institutions and processes of the state. On the one hand the red shirts and Pheu Thai supporters trust neither the courts nor the establishment around the ailing king and his powerful privy council. They see one big conspiracy ranged against them. On the other hand Mr Suthep and the Democrats have little faith left in democracy, since elections always produce a result antithetical to them. The only thing left, it seems to some, is to fight.The alternative is for the two sides to find some agreement over the conditions for the elections to take place in which all parties compete happily and fairly. That is a tall order in Thailand’s deeply polarised politics. There are reports that behind-the-scenes negotiations have begun to reach some kind of accommodation. It must be the fervent wish of many ordinary Thais that they succeed.