Rohingya Repatriation: Is the Journey Home Becoming an Indefinite Wait?

Nearly nine years after the massive exodus of Rohingya from Myanmar, one fundamental question remains unanswered: when will they finally be able to return to their own land? What began as an emergency refugee crisis in 2017 has now become a prolonged humanitarian, diplomatic, economic and security challenge with no clear end in sight.

The scale of the crisis is enormous. According to the latest Government of Bangladesh and UNHCR population data, 1,200,171 Rohingya refugees were being hosted in Bangladesh as of 30 June 2026, including 1,166,352 in Cox’s Bazar and others on Bhasan Char.

The figure has increased substantially over the years, not only because of the original 2017 influx but also because of continued displacement from Myanmar.

Bangladesh has demonstrated extraordinary humanitarian generosity by allowing the Rohingya to take refuge on its territory.

Despite being a densely populated developing country with limited resources, Bangladesh, with substantial assistance from the United Nations, international donors and humanitarian organizations, continues to provide food, shelter, healthcare, education, water, sanitation and protection.

UNHCR itself says that support is continuing for more than 1.1 million refugees in Cox’s Bazar and Bhasan Char.

This humanitarian response deserves international recognition.

But it also raises an unavoidable question: how long can Bangladesh continue to shoulder this responsibility?

Everything has an end. Humanitarian assistance cannot be expected to continue indefinitely at the current scale.

International funding is already under pressure as conflicts and humanitarian emergencies multiply around the world.

The longer the Rohingya remain in Bangladesh, the greater the economic, environmental, social and security burden on both the government and host communities.

The humanitarian response was supposed to be a bridge to a political solution. It must not become a substitute for one.

The latest development concerning repatriation provides some hope but also raises serious doubts.

Myanmar has said it has verified 308,797 people from a list of more than 828,000 names submitted by Bangladesh and has indicated that those verified could return when conditions in Rakhine State become conducive.

Verification is certainly necessary. But verification is not repatriation.
This is where the history of the crisis creates understandable skepticism.

Bangladesh and Myanmar have reached agreements and made repeated commitments on repatriation since 2017.

Several proposed repatriation initiatives have failed to produce meaningful returns because conditions in Myanmar were considered unsafe or because refugees themselves were unwilling to return without guarantees of security and rights.

The concern is therefore whether the latest process represents genuine progress or another stage in a cycle of verification, discussion, promises and delay.

For nearly a decade, Myanmar has repeatedly indicated that it is prepared to receive Rohingya. Yet the practical question remains unanswered: when will they actually return?

The situation inside Myanmar makes the prospect even more uncertain. Rakhine State is affected by continuing armed conflict involving the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army.

The United Nations has reported severe deterioration in human rights conditions in Myanmar, including killings, torture, arbitrary detention, forced labour and displacement. Rohingya civilians remain particularly vulnerable in this environment.

Human Rights Watch has also reported serious abuses against Rohingya in Rakhine State.

These developments demonstrate why repatriation cannot be reduced to a matter of transporting people across the border.

A genuine return must be safe, voluntary, dignified and sustainable.

Rohingya refugees need meaningful guarantees concerning security, legal identity and citizenship rights, freedom of movement, access to education and healthcare, livelihoods, property and land rights, and protection from discrimination and renewed persecution.

Without such guarantees, expecting refugees to return voluntarily is unrealistic.
At the same time, Bangladesh faces an increasingly difficult domestic situation.

The camps are among the world’s largest and most densely populated refugee settlements.

Prolonged displacement, poverty, unemployment and lack of opportunities have created conditions in which trafficking, drug smuggling, organized crime, armed-group activities and other forms of lawlessness can flourish.

Bangladesh must address these problems firmly. But it would be unfair to portray the entire Rohingya population as a security threat.

The overwhelming majority are ordinary families who fled violence and persecution and want nothing more than safety and a future for their children.

Law-and-order measures should therefore target individuals and criminal networks rather than stigmatize an entire community.

Nevertheless, the security dimension cannot be ignored.

The longer the crisis continues, the greater the risk that criminal groups and armed organizations will exploit vulnerable refugees, particularly unemployed and frustrated young people.

This could create consequences extending beyond the refugee camps.
The Rohingya crisis is no longer simply a humanitarian issue.

It has the potential to become a serious regional security and geopolitical challenge.

Bangladesh and Myanmar share a long and sensitive border.

Instability in Rakhine State can have direct consequences for Bangladesh through cross-border movement, armed-group activities, trafficking, smuggling and security incidents.

If the situation continues without an effective solution, relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar could deteriorate drastically in the future.

Such deterioration would not necessarily remain confined to bilateral relations.

It could threaten peace and stability in the wider Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asian region.

The international community should therefore recognize that resolving the Rohingya crisis is not only a matter of humanitarian responsibility; it is also an investment in regional peace and security.

A clear, measurable and time-bound roadmap for repatriation is urgently needed. Myanmar should not simply say that refugees can return when conditions become conducive.

It must work with relevant international and regional actors to establish what those conditions are, how they will be assessed and when they will be achieved.

Independent international monitoring should be available in areas of potential return.

Rohingya representatives should have a meaningful voice in discussions about their future. Their consent cannot be replaced by administrative verification.

China and India, both of which have significant influence and strategic interests in Myanmar, should play a stronger diplomatic role.

ASEAN and the United Nations also need to move beyond repeated expressions of concern and help establish a credible political framework for a sustainable solution.

At the same time, humanitarian assistance to Bangladesh must not be reduced prematurely.

As long as safe and sustainable repatriation is impossible, abandoning or substantially reducing assistance would only create another humanitarian catastrophe.

But humanitarian assistance alone cannot solve the crisis.
The greatest danger is that the world gradually becomes accustomed to the presence of more than 1.2 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.

Children born in the camps are growing up without a meaningful connection to their homeland.

A second generation is now emerging without citizenship, security or certainty about its future.

That would be an enormous human tragedy.
Bangladesh has done its part, and it continues to care for the Rohingya with substantial international support.

But the country cannot be expected to carry indefinitely the consequences of a crisis it did not create.

Myanmar’s verification of hundreds of thousands of people should be welcomed if it leads to genuine progress.

But the international community must judge the process by results, not announcements.
Verification without repatriation is not a solution.

Promises without a timetable are not a solution. Humanitarian assistance without a political settlement is not a solution.

The Rohingya deserve the right to return safely and with dignity to their own homeland. Bangladesh deserves a sustainable end to a burden it has carried for nearly a decade.

Myanmar must accept responsibility for creating conditions in which its displaced population can return with security and rights.

And the international community must act before an unresolved humanitarian crisis becomes an irreversible regional security crisis.

The Rohingya journey home must not become an indefinite journey.

(The writer is the Editor & CEO of News Network)