Rohingya return remains out of reach
Bangladesh is stepping up diplomatic efforts to restart the stalled repatriation of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar, nearly a decade after the 2017 influx, as Dhaka faces growing pressure from dwindling humanitarian funding, worsening security in the camps and the continuing conflict in Rakhine State.
Myanmar on Saturday, for the first time, indicated that it was willing to take back more than 300,000 verified Rohingya if security conditions in Rakhine improve.
The development followed remarks by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who said Myanmar had agreed to the figure as part of ongoing repatriation efforts.
The announcement has offered a fresh diplomatic opening, but no clear timetable or
operational mechanism has yet been announced for the return of the refugees.
For Bangladesh, the central challenge remains ensuring that any repatriation is safe, voluntary and dignified.
Rohingya refugees have repeatedly expressed a desire to return to Myanmar, but concerns over persecution, citizenship rights and security have prevented previous attempts from moving forward.
Bangladesh currently hosts around 1.2 million Rohingya refugees in 33 overcrowded camps in Cox’s Bazar and on Bhasan Char.
The United Nations says the latest influx added around 150,000 people as fighting intensified in Rakhine State.
What began as an emergency humanitarian response following the August 2017 military crackdown has now evolved into a protracted crisis approaching its tenth year. No Rohingya have been repatriated under the arrangements reached after the 2017 influx.
Repatriation efforts repeatedly stalled
Bangladesh and Myanmar signed a repatriation arrangement in November 2017, followed by bilateral mechanisms to verify refugees eligible for return.
Two major attempts, in November 2018 and August 2019, failed after refugees refused to return, citing fears of persecution and the absence of citizenship rights and adequate security guarantees.
China subsequently emerged as a key external mediator, facilitating trilateral discussions between Bangladesh and Myanmar and promoting a three-stage approach centred on dialogue and development in Rakhine State.
A proposed pilot return of 1,176 refugees in 2023 also failed to materialise as security conditions in Myanmar deteriorated.
The conflict has since fundamentally altered the political and security landscape in Rakhine.
The Arakan Army has expanded its control over large parts of the state, while the Myanmar military continues to fight several armed groups.
Any sustainable repatriation process must therefore take account of the realities on the ground, including the growing influence of non-state actors.
The UN’s Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar has documented intensified air attacks against civilians, along with evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
A UK government assessment has also warned that Rohingya in Rakhine face severe risks from the Arakan Army and that Myanmar’s central authorities may be unable to provide adequate protection.
Dhaka puts repatriation high on agenda
The new BNP government has placed the Rohingya issue high on its diplomatic and national security agenda as the prolonged crisis creates mounting economic, environmental and social pressures.
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman told parliament that his government was “firmly committed to achieving a peaceful and swift resolution”.
His government has formed an 11-member national committee, headed by the prime minister, to formulate a comprehensive strategy for sustainable repatriation and coordinate the relevant agencies.
Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman has linked the government’s approach to previous BNP administrations, which facilitated the return of Rohingya refugees during the late 1970s and early 1990s.
He said the government would draw on those experiences while taking effective measures despite Myanmar’s continuing internal instability.
The verification process, however, underscores the scale of the diplomatic deadlock.
Bangladesh has shared data on around 829,000 Rohingya with Myanmar, but the country had verified only 354,000 by January 2026.
The verification process has not translated into actual returns because of the continuing conflict in Rakhine.
Humanitarian crisis deepens
While diplomatic efforts remain stalled, the humanitarian operation is facing a severe funding shortfall.
The 2026 Rohingya Joint Response Plan requires $710.5 million to support 1.6 million people, including refugees and members of host communities in Bangladesh.
The appeal is 26 per cent lower than the previous year as humanitarian agencies have been forced to prioritise only the most basic services.
By June 2026, only 60 per cent of the appeal had been funded, leaving major gaps in food, healthcare and education.
Funding cuts by the United States and European countries have contributed to the closure of nearly 2,800 schools and child protection programmes, increasing the vulnerability of children to trafficking, child labour and recruitment by armed groups.
UNHCR spokesperson Babar Baloch has warned that reducing assistance before a political solution is reached could turn the humanitarian crisis into a serious security threat.
Security concerns inside the camps have also intensified, with criminal networks gaining greater space to operate and reports of killings, abductions and drug trafficking increasing.
In 2025, nearly 900 Rohingya were reported dead or missing while attempting dangerous sea journeys to Malaysia and Indonesia, highlighting the refugees’ growing desperation and lack of confidence in their future.
The prolonged refugee presence has also placed significant pressure on Cox’s Bazar’s environment, consuming land, forests and water resources.
Former UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the region as “ground zero” for international aid cuts and warned of the consequences of drastic reductions in food assistance.
Complex diplomacy ahead
Bangladesh now faces the difficult task of negotiating with Myanmar’s authorities, which retain legal responsibility for citizenship, while also accounting for the Arakan Army’s growing territorial control in Rakhine.
The latest indication from Myanmar that it could accept more than 300,000 verified Rohingya provides a potential opening for renewed diplomacy.
But without improved security, guarantees of rights and citizenship, and a credible mechanism for safe and voluntary returns, the prospect of large-scale repatriation remains uncertain.
After years of stalled initiatives, Bangladesh faces mounting pressure to turn diplomatic assurances into a workable repatriation process before the humanitarian and security costs of prolonged displacement become even harder to manage.
