Savings certificate bounces back after 3-month slump
Net investment in national savings certificates (Sanchayapatra) returned to positive territory in April and May after remaining negative for three consecutive months, providing much-needed relief to the government’s budget financing in the closing months of fiscal year 2025–26.
According to the latest Bangladesh Bank data, the government’s net borrowing from savings certificates reached around Tk 805crore during the first 11 months (July–May) of FY2025–26.
This recovery was driven by stronger sales and lower redemptions in April and May, successfully reversing the negative trend recorded earlier in the fiscal year.
Economists attributed this renewed public interest to ongoing uncertainty in the banking sector and growing concerns over deposit safety.
Towfiqul Islam Khan, Additional Research Director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), stated that small investors, middle-income households, and retirees continue to view government savings instruments as one of the safest financial havens.
He added that persistent inflation has also encouraged people to prefer fixed-income instruments over riskier investment avenues.
He explained that net investment represents total sales minus repayments of matured or prematurely encashed certificates, with the final balance used by the government to bridge its budget deficit.
In the original FY2025–26 budget, the government set a target of TK 12,500 crore in net borrowing from savings certificates. However, the target was later revised down to TK 11,500 crore following sluggish sales in earlier months.
Data from the National Savings Directorate shows total sales reached TK 6,464 crore in May against encashments of TK 5,230 crore, yielding a net investment of TK 1,234 crore.
In April, sales stood at TK 7,973 crore against redemptions of TK 5,712 crore, generating a net investment of TK 2,260 crore.
The strong performance across these two months effectively offset the losses incurred during the preceding three-month slide.
During the first nine months (July–March) of FY2025–26, net investment had dropped to negative TK 2,690 crore. Overall, the TK 803 crore net investment achieved during the first 11 months marks a substantial improvement from the same period in FY2024–25, when net investment stood at negative TK 5,893 crore as repayments vastly outpaced fresh sales.
Market analysts noted that sales have slowed in recent years due to reduced profit rates, mandatory TIN requirements, stricter rules, and competitive yields offered by treasury bills and bank deposits.
Consequently, the government has scaled down its reliance on savings certificates for FY2026–27, setting a lower net borrowing target of TK 8,500 crore.
