Budget2026-27: A People-Centric Shift or Overambitious Promises

The BNP-led government has unveiled Bangladesh’s largest-ever national budget of Tk 9.38 lakh crore for fiscal year 2026-27, marking its first budget in two decades.

With targets of 6.5 percent GDP growth and bringing inflation down to 7.5 percent, the budget focuses on easing the cost of living, expanding social safety nets, and promoting green initiatives.

Economist Dr. Zahid Hussain acknowledged the budget’s ambition, particularly in growth and infrastructure, while cautioning about inflation management.

Meanwhile, Dr. Ahsan H. Mansur stressed that the budget’s success will depend on realistic revenue collection and effective implementation to manage inflation.

The health sector has nearly doubled to Tk 69,409 crore. Patients stand to benefit directly as heart stents are expected to become cheaper by up to Tk 20,000 per unit, intraocular lenses by Tk 5,000, and dialysis sessions by around Tk 800.

The introduction of a universal Health Card aims to create a digital patient management and referral system, potentially reducing unnecessary tests and improving care coordination.

In social protection, the flagship Family Card programme will provide Tk 2,500 monthly to around 4.1 million vulnerable families, primarily women-headed households.

This direct cash support could offer meaningful relief for daily essentials, food security, and children’s education for millions of low-income households.

Transport-related relief features prominently for senior citizens.

Citizens aged 65 and above will enjoy free travel on government trains, while metro rail fares in Dhaka will be reduced by 25 percent for them and persons with disabilities.

The budget strongly pushes green mobility.

The total tax burden on electric cars priced up to approximately Tk 30 lakh has been slashed from 93 percent to 64 percent, while those up to around Tk 60 lakh will face 80 percent tax.

This tiered reduction aims to encourage EV adoption while balancing tax revenue. Plug-in hybrids up to 1,800cc will see their tax load reduced to 73.44 percent.

These substantial cuts, combined with no excess duty on van balance up to Tk 4 lakh, are expected to make electric two-wheelers, e-bikes, and small electric cars significantly more attractive and affordable for middle-class commuters and small businesses.

On the flip side, the sharp increase in VAT on steel rods from Tk 150 to Tk 350 per unit has raised alarm in the real estate sector.

Since steel forms the backbone of construction, this hike is likely to drive up building material costs substantially.

Industry experts and REHAB have warned that apartment prices could rise further, making housing even less affordable for the middle class and potentially slowing down the already sluggish real estate market.

Daily kitchen expenses may see some relief as the source tax on 60 essential food items, including rice, potato, onion, edible oil, fish, and spices, has been reduced to a flat 0.5 percent.

However, tobacco products face higher taxes, pushing cigarette prices upward.

While the budget contains several targeted relief measures, its success will depend heavily on implementation.

Economists at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) have cautioned that structural vulnerabilities in revenue collection and expenditure management could still undermine these ambitious targets.