Could Brazilian oil emerge as one of the big winners of the Iran war?

China and India are increasingly turning to Brazil to make up for lost oil supplies as the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran continues to disrupt energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

With oil harder to access and Russian supply largely constrained by sanctions, Asian buyers are scrambling for crude from suppliers seen as safer and more reliable.

Brazil, which is already one of the world’s biggest oil exporters, has emerged as one of the clearest beneficiaries.

Sumit Ritolia, a specialist in modelling refinery and oil markets at Kpler, told Al Jazeera: “The disruption caused by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased the importance of Brazil as a marginal crude supplier to Asia.”

“China and India in particular have increased purchases of Brazilian crude to secure barrels that are not exposed to Gulf shipping disruptions,” he added.

Analysts say Brazil cannot replace the Middle East as Asia’s main oil supplier.

However, as shipping risks rise in the Gulf amid Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the corresponding naval blockade on Iranian ports by the United States, its oil has become increasingly attractive to refiners seeking to avoid supply shocks.

Asian countries imported about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from Brazil in 2025, according to data supplied to Al Jazeera by trade intelligence firm Kpler.

That rose to roughly 1.8 million bpd between January and May this year, highlighting Brazil’s growing role in Asia’s efforts to diversify away from the Gulf.