Economic lifeline at risk amid gulf conflict
Flight cancellations strand 55,000
workers; experts urge urgent
diversification of labour markets
Escalating conflict in the Middle East has dealt a severe blow to Bangladesh’s manpower export sector, with worker migration figures plummeting by more than half amid widespread flight cancellations, visa complications, and deepening security concerns across the Gulf region.
Since late February, nearly 300 flights from Dhaka and Chattogram to Gulf destinations have been cancelled within nine days of the conflict intensifying, leaving an estimated 55,000 passengers stranded — the majority of them migrant workers.
The disruption has created a double crisis: workers on leave cannot return to their jobs, while thousands of new recruits risk losing their entry visas — and with them, the life savings many families invested in the migration process.
Workers who have already invested Tk 3–4 lakh each to secure overseas employment now find themselves stuck due to flight cancellations, with no clear timeline for when normal travel will resume.
The government says it is closely monitoring developments.
Officials confirmed that diplomatic efforts are under way to address visa-related complications and ensure that workers are not penalised due to travel disruptions.
Preparations are also being made to support workers who may return home if the situation deteriorates further.
A sector under existential strain
The timing could not be worse for an already fragile labour export sector.
Country’s overseas employment market has become increasingly Saudi Arabia-centric, with migration experts warning that no new significant markets have emerged despite high expectations from the interim government.
The crisis poses a direct threat to Bangladesh’s two largest overseas labour markets — Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Saudi Arabia remains the single largest destination for Bangladeshi workers, hosting more than 2.5 million migrants.
Over $13.5 billion of Bangladesh’s record $32.8 billion in total remittances in 2025 came exclusively from the Middle East, where more than 4.5 million Bangladeshis are currently employed.
Analysts warn that if the conflict persists, that trajectory cannot be sustained.
Bangladesh sent about 1.1 million workers abroad in FY 2024–25, but labour migration could drop by around 30 per cent next year if flight bans and security restrictions persist.
BAIRA industry leaders have cautioned that new recruitment may come to a near standstill if regional security conditions do not improve soon.
Calls for alternative markets
Shamim Ahmed, a senior figure in the recruitment industry, said international disruptions of this nature are always a possibility, and that Bangladesh must urgently begin exploring alternative labour markets — particularly in Europe, Japan and Malaysia.
He noted that demand in Europe differs significantly from the Gulf model, requiring a long-term strategy and structural investment in workforce development rather than quick fixes.
He emphasised the need to focus on developing skilled workers in high-demand sectors such as healthcare and hospitality.
Ahmed also flagged a critical logistical barrier to European market expansion: many European countries do not have consulates in Bangladesh, forcing visa processing through third countries.
“If the process takes too long, employers won’t wait, and we lose the opportunity. Our foreign ministry needs to focus on starting visa processing here,” he said.
He argued that expanding overseas employment beyond the Middle East would carry dual benefits for the government — reducing domestic unemployment while increasing remittance inflows.
“If more people can go abroad for work, it will create multiple benefits for everyone,” he said.
Bangladeshi workers moving to other EU nations after being recruited for countries such as Croatia have already begun to damage bilateral labour relations, with some European governments considering halting work permits for Bangladeshi nationals altogether.
Experts say such incidents undermine the country’s credibility precisely when it needs to open new doors.
A silver lining on the horizon ?
Despite the immediate damage, some policy-makers and BAIRA leaders see a potential upside to the prolonged Middle East conflict.
They believe oil-rich Gulf states will eventually need to rebuild war-damaged infrastructure on a massive scale, generating demand for tens of thousands of workers.
Reconstruction efforts across the Gulf, they argue, could provide a significant boost to overseas employment once the US–Israel-backed war in the region comes to an end — provided Bangladesh is positioned to supply skilled labour when the opportunity arises.
Former Bangladesh Bank chief economist Dr Mustafa K Mujeri has urged the formation of a special crisis-monitoring task force under the central bank, alongside an intensified crackdown on hundi channels to ensure remittances continue to flow through formal banking systems.
