Fertiliser, irrigation challenges may shrink Boro rice output: USDA
Bangladesh may harvest a lower quantity of rice from the current Boro season as farmers have faced difficulties in ensuring adequate irrigation and fertiliser application, due to shortages of key production inputs, according to a projection by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Growers may bag 2.02 crore tonnes of Boro rice this season in the marketing year (MY) 2026-27, down 1.4 percent year-on-year, even though overall acreage has not declined.
“This reduction in Boro rice yield is caused by disruptions in irrigation and fertiliser application resulting from fuel and fertiliser shortages,” said the US agency in its latest report on Bangladesh’s grain and feed, published at the end of last week.
Boro acreage stood at the same level at 49 lakh hectares this season, USDA said.
The forecast is issued at a time when farmers have begun to harvest Boro paddy in various parts of the country, particularly the northeastern region.
Boro rice is transplanted in the December-January period and harvested in the April-May period every year. The crop depends heavily on irrigation and chemical fertiliser application, and it accounts for around 55 percent of the country’s total yearly rice output.
The USDA said farmers in some areas purchased urea, potash, and phosphate fertilisers at prices above the government-set rates and applied them excessively to potatoes. This has led to a shortage of fertilisers for Boro rice cultivation.
As of the third week of March 2026, limited rainfall has provided some support to Boro crop growth. However, farmers expressed concern about diesel supply shortages for operating shallow and low-lift irrigation pumps, the report said.
As a result of the fall in Boro yield, overall rice production may drop to 3.74 crore tonnes in the marketing year 2026-27, which begins in May each year.
The projected amount is expected to decline by 0.7 percent from 3.76 crore tonnes in the outgoing marketing year 2024-25.
Rice consumption, including use in feed for poultry, cattle and aquaculture, is projected to be 3.91 crore tonnes in MY27, which is 1.3 percent higher than the USDA’s estimate of 3.86 crore tonnes in the outgoing marketing year.
As such, the USDA said rice imports are likely to grow to 15 lakh tonnes in the coming MY27, posting a 7.1 percent increase year-on-year.
The report said rice prices, despite a drop in recent months, are very high in the domestic market. These high prices are anticipated to continue throughout most of MY27 as the cost of rice production is expected to increase.
“In response, the new government is expected to take a cautious approach in order to maintain national food security. It is likely to continue facilitating rice imports through both public procurement via international tenders and government-to-government purchases, as well as private sector participation, to ensure adequate market supply and price stability,” said the USDA.
Between July 1, 2025, and April 8 this year, the public and private sectors have imported 11.19 lakh tonnes of rice, according to data from the food ministry.
