Fertiliser panic brewing
Global fertiliser markets are under fresh pressure amid the ongoing war involving Iran, the United States and Israel, with uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raising serious concerns about supply disruptions and rising prices for import-dependent countries such as Bangladesh.
The lingering effects of the pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war had already strained global supply chains.
The new Middle East tensions have intensified fears over fertiliser and raw material supply, with international prices already showing a sharp upward trend.
Bangladesh, which requires around 6 million tonnes of chemical fertiliser annually, relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand.
The situation has been compounded by a gas shortage that has forced five of the country’s six urea fertiliser factories to suspend operations, raising concerns over reduced local production.
Officials at the Ministry of Agriculture, however, said there is no immediate risk of a shortage during the ongoing Boro season, as sufficient stock is available.
The government has finalised plans to import 500,000 tonnes of urea in anticipation of possible supply disruptions after June.
Agricultural production in Bangladesh is highly dependent on chemical fertilisers, with annual demand estimated at 6.8 to 6.9 million tonnes.
Urea accounts for around 2.6 million tonnes, followed by diammonium phosphate (DAP), one of the most widely used fertilisers.
Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have created uncertainty over DAP imports from Saudi Arabia.
Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) sources said a planned 40,000-tonne DAP shipment from Saudi Arabia this month has been postponed due to the evolving situation, although existing stock is considered sufficient for now.
BADC mainly imports fertiliser from Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco, and alternative sourcing options are being explored.
China and Egypt have offered to supply DAP, while proposals have also come from Dubai for DAP, TSP and MOP fertilisers.
According to official data, Bangladesh currently has 1.684 million tonnes of fertiliser in stock, including 481,000 tonnes of urea, 383,000 tonnes of TSP, 471,000 tonnes of DAP and 349,000 tonnes of MOP—enough to meet demand until May or June.
Officials said fertiliser supply for the Boro season has already been ensured, but preparations are under way for the upcoming Aman season beginning in June.
BCIC officials said 300,000 tonnes of urea will be imported through government-to-government agreements and 200,000 tonnes through open tenders.
Discussions are ongoing to secure alternative routes for imports under existing agreements with Saudi Arabia, while new contracts with Egypt and other countries are expected soon.
A urea shipment from the United Arab Emirates has also been delayed due to security concerns in sea routes, though authorities hope it will depart once conditions stabilise.
International fertiliser prices have already surged following the escalation in Middle East tensions.
Market analysts say urea prices have risen by more than 25 per cent in recent weeks, climbing from around $480 per tonne to about $625.
Experts warn that prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could severely affect ammonia and nitrogen transport, pushing global fertiliser prices even higher and disrupting agricultural supply chains.
Agricultural economist Dr Jahangir Alam said the impact of fertiliser shortages is not immediate but becomes evident months later through lower crop yields and rising food prices.
Agriculture Secretary Rafiqul Islam said Bangladesh currently has no fertiliser shortage but is closely monitoring the global situation.
He added that the government is encouraging efficient fertiliser use and greater adoption of organic fertilisers to reduce dependence on imports.
Analysts warn that if the Hormuz route remains restricted for an extended period, fertiliser supply constraints could affect crop production in South Asia and eventually drive up global food prices, posing a broader threat to food security and living costs.
