Rohingya Crisis: Myanmar message signals possible breakthrough
Al Mamun Harun Ur Rashid :
After nearly nine years of diplomatic deadlock and stalled repatriation efforts, a single congratulatory message from Naypyidaw may have cracked open the door to renewed dialogue on one of South Asia’s most protracted humanitarian crises.
Experts and diplomatic sources said such a message should be seen as a constructive signal and used to increase engagement with Naypyidaw to find a durable solution to the Rohingya crisis.
Myanmar Foreign Minister Than Swe has conveyed a formal congratulatory message to Bangladesh’s newly appointed Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman, a move officials see as the first positive signal from Naypyidaw since the Rohingya influx began in 2017.
Adding further weight to the moment, Twan Mrat Naing, chairman of the United League of Arakan (ULA) and head of the Arakan Army, also sent a separate congratulatory letter to Dhaka.
In his message, Naing expressed hope for “practical, sustainable and realistic solutions.”
“In your new capacity as the Foreign Minister of Bangladesh, I hope you will continue to work with us to find practical, sustainable and realistic solutions.
Building on our existing goodwill, we now have an opportunity to chart a new course of friendship between Bangladesh and Arakan,” he said.
Experts describe the dual messages — from both Myanmar’s central government and the Arakan Army – as positive, given the virtual freeze in Dhaka–Naypyidaw relations over the past several years.
International relations analyst and former professor of the University of Dhaka Imtiaz Ahmed told The New Nation on Thursday, “Such messages should be viewed positively. The Rohingya crisis cannot be resolved without Myanmar, so this is a sign of breaking the ice.”
“We cannot say anything beforehand what outcome would come. But it is evident that the current government of Bangladesh will place greater priority on the Rohingya crisis,” he said.
About the Rohingya crisis, in 2023 current Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, who was then the acting chairman of Bangladesh Nationalist Party, described it as ‘wound on the neck’.
In 2025, he urged the interim government to increase diplomatic efforts to ensure the safe, dignified, and voluntary repatriation of displaced people from Myanmar.
Since the crisis began on August 25, 2017, Myanmar’s military actions in Rakhine State led to the mass exodus of over 700,000 Rohingyas to Bangladesh.
Today, more than 1.2 million Rohingyas live in camps in Cox’s Bazar and Bhasan Char, one of the largest refugee concentrations globally.
Relations further deteriorated over time when border tensions intensified as clashes between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army spilled close to Bangladeshi territory.
In 2022 and 2023, mortar shells and gunfire reportedly landed inside Bangladesh’s border areas in Bandarban, prompting Dhaka to summon Myanmar’s ambassador multiple times in protest.
Repatriation efforts repeatedly stalled. Pilot returns announced in 2018 and again in 2019 failed to materialize as refugees declined to go back without guarantees of safety, citizenship and security. The crisis has since remained protracted, with no visible breakthrough.
During the tenure of Bangladesh’s interim government led by Prof Muhammad Yunus, renewed diplomatic initiatives were undertaken to expedite the stalled repatriation process.
A high-level conference on the Rohingya crisis was held at the United Nations headquarters in New York in September 2025, aimed at mobilising international political will and sustained humanitarian financing.
At the time, senior diplomat Dr Khalilur Rahman, who also served as High Representative to the Chief Adviser on the Rohingya Crisis and Priority Issues, was part of Bangladesh’s delegation that engaged key stakeholders, including permanent members of the UN Security Council, ASEAN representatives and major donor countries.
The interim administration also intensified quiet engagement with both Myanmar’s authorities and ethnic armed groups operating in Rakhine, recognising the shifting realities on the ground as the Arakan Army expanded territorial control in parts of the state.
Officials said backchannel contacts increased in late 2024 and early 2025, focusing on conditions conducive to safe, voluntary and dignified repatriation.
Bangladesh simultaneously called for stronger international guarantees and accountability mechanisms to build confidence among displaced Rohingyas.
Foreign Minister Khalilur recently confirmed that Dhaka has been in contact with both Myanmar’s government and the Arakan Army.
The congratulatory messages, diplomats say, are the first public reflection of that engagement under the new government.
“This is not just a courtesy,” a senior official in Dhaka said. “It signals readiness to reopen structured dialogue.”
The Arakan Army’s message is particularly significant.
As the conflict between Myanmar’s military and the Arakan Army reshaped control dynamics in Rakhine State throughout 2024 and 2025, any durable repatriation arrangement increasingly requires engagement with all actors exercising authority on the ground.
However, experts said the congratulatory gesture alone does not resolve the structural obstacles that have stalled repatriation for nearly nine years. Key issues remain unresolved: citizenship status for Rohingyas, security guarantees, restoration of homes and livelihoods, and credible international monitoring mechanisms.
At the same time, Dhaka has broadened its diplomatic outreach beyond bilateral channels. Over the past year, Bangladesh has intensified consultations with China, India, ASEAN member states, the European Union and the United States, seeking coordinated pressure and incentives to facilitate repatriation.
Humanitarian funding cuts have heightened urgency, with reduced international assistance to Rohingya camps raising concerns over food security, education and stability, while Bangladesh warns that prolonged displacement poses broader regional security risks.
In this context, the messages from Naypyidaw and the Arakan leadership are being read as a meaningful step toward reviving momentum on one of the region’s most enduring humanitarian crises.
