China’s 15th five-year plan beckons new hopes for Bangladesh’s national rejuvenation
Al Mamun Harun Ur Rashid
As the global economy enters a period of technological fragmentation, supply chain realignment and strategic rivalry, attention is turning once again to Beijing. The annual Two Sessions known as Lianghui.
Scheduled to commence on March 4 and 5, these annual meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) serve as the ultimate platform for ratifying China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). This roadmap is not merely a domestic blueprint; it is a recalibrated strategy for high-quality, innovation-driven growth that offers profound opportunities for partners like Bangladesh.
For investors, policymakers and emerging economies alike, the significance of these meetings extends far beyond procedural formality. The Two Sessions provide the authoritative policy roadmap for China’s fiscal stance, industrial priorities, regulatory reform and geopolitical posture. In a period defined by technological fragmentation, supply chain realignment and persistent geopolitical tension, the signals emanating from Beijing carry global consequences.
The 2026 sessions are particularly consequential because they will formally ratify China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). That document marks a structural recalibration from rapid, investment-heavy expansion towards what Chinese policymakers term “high-quality development”: innovation-led growth, technological self-reliance, green transition and advanced manufacturing.
The Two Sessions also outline fiscal and monetary strategies that shape international expectations. The continued use of ultra-long- term special treasury bonds, for instance, reflects an effort to sustain domestic demand and infrastructure investment without triggering destabilising inflationary pressures. For countries integrated into Chinese supply chains, these policy assurances reduce uncertainty and enhance planning horizons.
Equally significant is the emphasis on “new productive forces” – frontier sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, semiconductors and renewable energy systems. As China consolidates its position in high-technology industries, lower-end manufacturing segments are expected to relocate to more cost-competitive destinations. This structural shift creates opportunities for developing economies prepared to integrate into evolving regional value chains.
During a recent meeting, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has emphasised that Bangladesh will firmly adhere to the one-China principle, a stance that Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen noted is vital for elevating the China-Bangladesh Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership to a new height. In return, China has expressed its appreciation for the “Bangladesh First” policy, supporting the new government’s smooth governance and its right to safe- guard national sovereignty and stability without foreign interference.
China already stands as Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding 25 billion US dollars annually. Beijing has extended zero-tariff access to 98 percent of Bangladeshi taxable exports until 2028, providing an important cushion as preferential arrangements in other markets begin to phase out. Discussions surrounding a potential bilateral Free Trade Agreement or Economic Partnership Agreement could further consolidate market access and reduce tariff barriers.
During a seminar held in Dhaka November last year marking the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations, Chinese State Council Minister Chen Xu described the 15th Five-Year Plan as an overarching framework that would open broader avenues of cooperation with developing partners, particularly Bangladesh. She emphasised joint development in trade, investment, technology and people-to-people engagement, framing the next phase of engagement as mutually beneficial.
Similarly, Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen characterised the forth- coming Plan as not only a milestone in China’s modernisation but also a platform for expanded collaboration in industrial upgrading, infra- structure, modern agriculture and the digital economy. With 2026 marking both the first year of implementing the new Plan and the tenth anniversary of Bangladesh’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, the timing carries strategic resonance.
Industrial cooperation constitutes one of the most tangible areas of convergence. As wages rise in China and production shifts towards advanced sectors, labour-intensive industries – textiles, light manufacturing and components assembly – are likely to seek relocation.
Bangladesh’s ready-made garment sector, which accounts for more than 80 per cent of export earnings and employs approximately four million workers, remains competitive. However, the long- term objective must be industrial upgrading rather than mere expansion of low-value assembly. As a result, the government of Bangladesh should pay more attention to easing the policies to attract the investors.
Strategically negotiated industrial zones, incorporating technology transfer provisions and skills development, could position Bangladesh within reconfigured Asian supply chains. Without such forward-looking planning, relocation risks rein- forcing existing structural constraints rather than overcoming them.
The green transition presents another critical dimension. China’s leadership in electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar panel manufacturing – often described as the “new three” industries – has global implications for energy markets and climate policy. Bangladesh, facing rising energy demand and external vulnerabilities linked to fuel imports, can benefit from cooperation in renewable deployment, grid modernisation and energy storage technologies. Such collaboration would support both energy security and climate resilience objectives.
Agriculture and food security also warrant attention as climate volatility poses growing risks to productivity. Joint initiatives in hybrid seed research, satellite-based monitoring and precision farming technologies including rural revitalisation offer pathways to enhance resilience and diversify rural incomes.
The broader geopolitical context further reinforces the need for strategic calibration. The Two Sessions frequently articulate China’s commitment to an “equal and orderly multipolar world” and to stability in global supply chains. For smaller economies, predictability in major power policy reduces systemic risk. Yet maintaining diversified partnerships remains essential to safeguarding strategic autonomy.
Ultimately, the Two Sessions offer a window into China’s policy trajectory at a time when global governance structures face strain. For Bangladesh, the imperative is not passive observation but strategic engagement. As the world watches Beijing this March, Bangladesh must not merely watch – it must be prepared to act, transforming these global policy shifts into a catalyst for its own national rejuvenation. By bridging its developmental gaps through innovation and sustainability-led partnerships, Bangladesh can move up the global value chain on its own terms, ensuring a “win-win” outcome for its people and its future.
(The Writer is the Diplomatic Correspondent of The New Nation)
