Next govt to confront daunting pol, economic hurdles: Crisis group

Staff Report :

The International Crisis Group has cautioned that Bangladesh’s next government will face multiple challenges, including weak institutions, a slow economy dependent on garments and remittances, and growing climate risks in one of the world’s most densely populated countries.

The incoming government will also need to manage delicate foreign policy issues, including ties with India, US–China rivalry, and the unresolved crisis of over one million Rohingya refugees near the Myanmar border, said Crisis Group consultant Thomas Kean.

Kean noted that an elected government with a full five-year mandate would be better placed than an interim administration to manage political tensions and socio-economic pressures, but cautioned that the road ahead will be fraught.

If the election outcome is disputed, he warned, the situation could quickly spiral into a political crisis, testing the fragile consensus underpinning the transition.

He was commenting on the Crisis Group’s latest Q&A, Curtain Falls on Bangladesh’s Interim Government as Critical Elections Approach, which analyses the stakes of the 12 February election.

Even if the polls are held peacefully, Kean said the next government will face intense pressure to respond to the aspirations of a young and increasingly frustrated population and to deliver meaningful reforms, beginning with the July Charter.

“Predicting the outcome of the 12 February poll is difficult because Bangladesh’s electoral landscape has shifted so dramatically,” he said, adding that security risks remain among the most pressing concerns.

Political violence is already on the rise, with at least 16 politicians killed since the election schedule was announced, raising fears of further attacks on candidates and possible reprisals against Awami League supporters or the country’s Hindu minority.

With nearly half the population under the age of 30 and many unable to find jobs that match their education, frustration is running deep. Failure to implement promised reforms, Kean warned, would reinforce perceptions that political change has been largely cosmetic.

The next government will also have to address the sensitive issue of political reconciliation. Given its historical role and strong support base, the Awami League cannot be excluded indefinitely, Kean said.

However, the party’s actions under Sheikh Hasina, particularly during July and August 2024, make its return to electoral politics—even under new leadership—highly contentious.

Kean suggested that India and other influential foreign governments could help facilitate dialogue between the Awami League and a future government.

He added that international partners, many of whom supported Prof Muhammad Yunus and his colleagues, should continue backing the incoming administration as it seeks to move beyond Bangladesh’s recent political turbulence.