Chinese Energy Diplomacy in South Asia: Powering Influence Beyond the Himalayas
Dr. Mohammad Maruf Hasan :
China’s energy transition will enter a strategic phase in 2026, transitioning from rapid capacity increase to intricate system integration and worldwide industrial supremacy.
In 2024, China invested a record $818 billion in its sustainable transition, surpassing any other country by more than double, thus establishing itself as the world’s foremost “electrostate”.
According to the CPPCC, President Xi said the 2035 NDC Target: A recently established objective to diminish greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10% from peak levels by 2035.
As the energy competition of the 21st century progresses, China’s energy diplomacy in South Asia has assumed a notably dynamic nature.
Beijing’s increasing engagement in the region’s energy sector, from hydroelectric projects in Nepal to coal plants in Pakistan and renewable energy initiatives in Bangladesh, is transforming both infrastructure and geopolitics.
The initial development ties established under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have transformed into a multifaceted framework of energy diplomacy, establishing China as a preeminent force in South Asia’s quest for power security, industrial advancement, and climate resilience.
Strategic and commercial interests drive China’s involvement in South Asia’s energy sector.
Beijing aims to establish new markets for its excess industrial capacity, energy innovations, and construction proficiency.
Conversely, it seeks to enhance political alliances and establish influence along crucial economic and energy routes connecting the Indian Ocean to western China.
The energy demand in South Asia is one of the fastest-growing globally. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that the region’s overall energy consumption will quadruple by 2040.
China, with its extensive expertise in energy infrastructure construction, has intervened to fulfil this demand, frequently providing financing and technology that Western lenders are hesitant to supply.
Dr. Wang Yizhou, an international relations professor at Peking University, noted, “Energy diplomacy represents the new frontier of China’s Belt and Road vision, it links developmental objectives with geopolitical strategy.”
Pakistan: The Flagship of China’s Energy Outreach
No nation exemplifies China’s energy diplomacy more than Pakistan, where the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) serves as the cornerstone of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) collaboration.
Approximately 50% of CPEC’s overall investment, anticipated to exceed USD 60 billion, is designated for energy projects.
Since 2015, China has funded and built coal, hydroelectric, solar, and wind facilities that have contributed over 8,000 megawatts to Pakistan’s national grid.
Initiatives like the Sahiwal Coal Power Plant, Karot Hydropower Project, and Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park have assisted Pakistan in mitigating persistent power deficits and reinforcing its industrial foundation.
Bangladesh: From Coal to Clean Energy Cooperation
China has emerged as the predominant provider of energy investment and technological support in Bangladesh.
Initiatives like the Payra Thermal Power Plant, SS Power Plant in Banshkhali, and the Barishal 50 MW Solar Project exemplify Beijing’s multifaceted engagement in both fossil and renewable energy sectors.
Under the BRI framework, China has provided funding and engineering expertise that accelerated Bangladesh’s journey toward universal electricity access, achieved in 2022. Today, Chinese companies are also exploring green transitions through solar, wind, and smart grid collaborations.
China’s cooperation has been pivotal in facilitating Bangladesh’s industrial growth; however, the forthcoming challenge is to guarantee that energy cooperation is consistent with climate objectives and local sustainability criteria.
Beijing’s increasing focus on renewable energy and digital power systems in Bangladesh indicates a gradual transition from conventional infrastructure to technology-oriented collaboration, aligning with China’s global initiative for green diplomacy.
Nepal: Hydropower as a Bridge Across the Himalayas
In the landlocked country of Nepal, China’s energy diplomacy manifests in the form of hydropower.
Nepal, possessing substantial unexploited water resources estimated at over 40,000 MW of potential, embodies both an opportunity and a threat for Beijing’s regional aspirations.
China has participated in numerous significant hydroelectric initiatives, such as the Upper Trishuli-1, West Seti, and Tamor River projects, offering investment, construction, and technological expertise.
These initiatives aim to convert Nepal from an energy importer into a prospective electricity exporter to India and Bangladesh.
However, delays in execution, challenges in financing, and political sensitivities have impeded development.
Kathmandu has the intricate challenge of balancing collaboration with China and India, both of which are keen to shape Nepal’s hydropower prospects.
Hydropower diplomacy transcends mere electricity generation; it pertains to the governance of water resources and the exercise of strategic influence. China comprehends this effectively and employs energy collaboration as a mechanism for fostering confidence.
Sri Lanka and the Maldives: Maritime Energy Links
In the southern region, China’s involvement in Sri Lanka and the Maldives focuses on port infrastructure, energy logistics, and the transition to renewable energy.
In Sri Lanka, initiatives such as the Hambantota Port Industrial Zone and the Norochcholai Power Plant exemplify Beijing’s commitment to consolidating maritime trade and energy supply chains within the framework of the Maritime Silk Road.
In the Maldives, China has endorsed solar initiatives and power distribution systems aimed at diminishing reliance on fuel in the islands.
Despite their reduced scope, these activities bolster China’s geopolitical influence throughout the Indian Ocean, facilitating enhanced logistical capabilities for its commercial and energy networks.
China’s energy diplomacy has undoubtedly expedited South Asia’s development; however, it has also elicited strategic and financial apprehensions.
India, regarding South Asia as its historical sphere of influence, considers Chinese energy initiatives particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative as elements of a wider geopolitical rivalry.
Numerous regional observers contend that Beijing’s energy financing frequently fulfils dual objectives: economic collaboration and strategic positioning.
“In the absence of China, a significant portion of South Asia’s energy infrastructure would remain in the conceptual phase,” asserts Prof. Imtiaz Hossain of the South Asian Institute of Policy Studies.
“Countries must enhance their negotiation capabilities to ensure that agreements benefit mutual interests rather than being one-sided.”
China’s energy diplomacy in South Asia is at a pivotal juncture. It has illuminated villages, energized factories, and linked cities, but it has simultaneously intensified economic reliance and geopolitical intricacies.
As Beijing recalibrates its international energy strategy to align with carbon neutrality objectives, South Asia emerges as both a recipient and a proving ground. The future energy security of the area will hinge on its capacity to negotiate equitable partnerships, diversify investments, and emphasize sustainability.
China’s success will be evaluated not solely in megawatts but also in mutual trust and enduring stability. If administered judiciously, the emerging epoch of energy diplomacy might convert South Asia from a domain of scarcity into one of collective prosperity driven by collaboration rather than rivalry.
(The author is Associate Professor, School of International Studies, Sichuan University, Sichuan, China.)