Russian war deaths are rising to unsustainable levels: Ukraine
Al Jazeera :
Russian mortality rates on the front lines are rising to levels that cannot be sustained by the current method of voluntary recruitment, Ukrainian figures suggest.
“In December, 35,000 occupiers were eliminated – and this has been confirmed with video footage,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a Monday evening address. “In November, there were 30,000, and in October, 26,000 eliminated occupiers.”
Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii echoed that analysis.
“The enemy lost over 33,000 personnel [in December]. This figure includes only confirmed video cases, but the actual losses of the occupiers are greater,” he wrote on the Telegram messaging service.
That, he said, made December 2025, “the first month when the unmanned systems units of the Ukrainian Defence Forces neutralised approximately as many servicemen of the occupying army as Russia conscripted in a month”.
Russia has kept regular conscripts out of its war in Ukraine, recruiting volunteers on a contract basis to fight in its “special military operation”.
On December 27, Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) chief Kyrylo Budanov told state broadcaster Suspilne that Russia had reached its quota of 403,000 recruits in 2025 – an average of 33,583 per month, and planned to increase that slightly to 34,083 per month in 2026.
Ukraine’s casualty reports, if accurate, suggest they are no longer sustainable and may force Russia to start using its active reserve.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, observed in November that forward reserve units in Belgorod had begun to receive heavy equipment such as howitzers, thermobaric weapons and all-terrain vehicles.
“Reserve territorial defence units assigned with protecting rear-area critical infrastructure do not require such heavy equipment suited for offensive operations,” the ISW said, adding “Russia is setting conditions to deploy Belgorod Oblast active reservists for combat missions.”
Analysts have said that deploying reservists or conscripts could carry significant political risk for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has left mainstream Russian society unscathed by his war of aggression.
Ukraine estimates that almost 420,000 Russian troops were killed or wounded last year.
Zelenskyy first noted the rising mortality rate of Russian troops on December 16.
“The increase in these figures is the result of the right decisions. There must be more decisions like these,” he said on Monday.
He was referring to the production of drones, which Ukraine successfully stepped up in 2025 and plans to increase this year.
This, he said, was the main reason why he appointed former First Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov as defence minister on Friday.
Zelenskyy described Fedorov as “deeply involved in the issues related to the drone line and works very effectively on digitalising public services and processes”.
The president praised departing Defence Minister Denys Shmyal, whom he moved to the energy portfolio, for reaching the production target of 1,000 intercept drones per day by the end of last year.