Can Tarique fill BD’s post-Hasina power vacuum?

Abu Jakir :

For nearly two decades, the country’s politics revolved around two towering women from two rival dynasties: Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of the country’s founding leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and Begum Khaleda Zia, the widow of former president Ziaur Rahman. Their bitter rivalry defined an era marked by street protests, boycotts, arrests and, in its final years, allegations of enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings and widespread corruption.

That era came to an abrupt end in 2024, when a mass student-led uprising forced Hasina from power after 17 years in office and drove her into exile. The revolt dismantled not only a government but also a political order – leaving behind what many Bangladeshis now describe as a vacuum of leadership. As the country struggles to redefine itself, attention has turned to a familiar but long-absent figure: Tarique Rahman, the acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), who is set to return home on Thursday after 17 years in exile.

His arrival, supporters say, could mark a turning point. Critics ask a harder question: can he fill the void left by the collapse of Bangladesh’s two-woman-dominated political order?
Khaleda Zia, once the other pole of national power, is now gravely ill. She has spent years in and out of prison under the Hasina government and is currently undergoing treatment at Evercare Hospital in Dhaka. Her prolonged incarceration and declining health have removed her from active politics, effectively ending an era in which Bangladesh’s fate was shaped by two families locked in a relentless struggle.

Rahman’s own absence has been long and politically consequential. Detained on corruption charges during the army-backed caretaker government in 2007, he spent 18 months in jail before being released in September 2008. Days later, he left for London with his family. He has lived there ever since, unable to return amid what his party describes as politically motivated cases and persecution under Hasina’s rule.

Now, with the old order toppled, he is coming home – and with him, renewed hopes and deep anxieties.
Political analysts say Bangladesh is undergoing a period of intense polarization. Competing visions of the country’s future have emerged, often framed in stark terms: one camp accused of being aligned with Indian interests, another claiming to champion a more nationalist, Bangladesh-first politics. In this climate, Rahman’s stance toward India has become a defining test.

Many observers warn that any perception of governing with India’s favor – or at its behest – could prove politically fatal in post-2024 Bangladesh. The spirit of the uprising, they argue, was rooted in resistance to external influence and domestic authoritarianism alike. Rahman appears aware of that sentiment. In a recent interview with BBC Bangla, he said his guiding principle would be “Bangladesh first,” emphasizing national interests, public demands and sovereignty above all else. If he adheres to that pledge, analysts say, he may yet command broad support.
If not, they warn, the political energy unleashed by the 2024 uprising could turn against him.
His return has been meticulously choreographed.
According to BNP officials, Rahman will depart London’s Heathrow Airport on a scheduled Biman Bangladesh Airlines flight late Wednesday night, Bangladesh time. After a stopover in Sylhet, he is expected to land at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka at 11:50 a.m. on Thursday.
From the airport, he will proceed directly to a mass reception organized by the BNP on the capital’s 300 Feet Road, where he is expected to deliver a solitary address to supporters. Senior party leaders will receive him at the airport, but no other speeches are planned at the rally – a decision party officials say is intended to keep the focus squarely on his return.
After the gathering, Mr. Rahman will visit Evercare Hospital to see his ailing mother.
The following days are filled with symbolic gestures. On Friday, he is scheduled to visit the grave of his father, President Ziaur Rahman, and pay tribute at the National Martyrs’ Memorial. On December 27, party officials say, he will complete the formalities to obtain a national identity card and register as a voter – an act heavy with political meaning after nearly two decades abroad.
His itinerary also includes visits to the grave of Sharif Osman Hadi, a figure associated with the July uprising, and to the National Institute of Traumatology and Orthopaedic Rehabilitation, commonly known as Pangu Hospital, where victims of the uprising are being treated.
Security preparations have been extensive. BNP leaders say the government is coordinating with police, the Rapid Action Battalion and the military to ensure safety. Only permanent committee members will be allowed into the airport’s restricted zone, and journalists have been asked to remain outside designated “red zones.” Separate security passes will be issued for the airport and reception venue.
Medical contingencies are also in place. Twenty medical camps are to be set up across key points in Dhaka, including Uttara and the 300 Feet Road. Near the main stage, a six-bed medical unit and an ICU-equipped ambulance will be on standby.
Despite speculation, BNP leaders insist that no request has been made for protection from the Special Security Force.
For Mr. Rahman, the challenge ahead is far greater than organizing a triumphant homecoming. Bangladesh is emerging from one of the most turbulent chapters in its history – a period scarred by repression, resistance and revolt. With Sheikh Hasina gone and Khaleda Zia sidelined by illness, the country is searching for a new political center of gravity.
Whether Tarique Rahman can become that center – and whether he can do so without betraying the ideals that fueled the 2024 uprising – remains the question hanging over Bangladesh as he steps back onto its soil.