Rice prices may ease after months of hiking

Muhammad Ayub ALi :

Rice prices, which have weighed heavily on households for most of the year, are expected to ease in the coming months, the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission said in its September Economic Update and Outlook report.

The report shows that rice price inflation has been running at double digits since December 2024, peaking at 15.52 percent in June 2025, the highest level in over a decade. For three straight months—June through August—inflation for almost all categories of rice stayed above 15 percent, except for medium-quality rice, which fell slightly to 13.95 percent in August from 15.32 percent in July.

In comparison, average food inflation during the same period stood at 11.8 percent, underscoring rice’s disproportionate impact on household expenses.

Despite an above-average Boro harvest this year, market prices remained stubbornly high. The GED attributed this mismatch to the absence of real-time monitoring of production, demand, and stock levels, which delayed timely government action. Corrective measures, however, began in late July.

According to the Ministry of Food, the government has so far procured 1.7 million tonnes of Boro paddy and rice under its stock-building drive. By 17 September, total grain collection reached 1.82 million tonnes, including 1.72 million tonnes of rice, 81,711 tonnes of wheat, and 19,533 tonnes of paddy. Officials say this marks one of the largest procurement volumes in the past five years.
To cool prices further, the government in August 2025 approved duty-free imports of 500,000 tonnes of rice. Private importers quickly responded, resuming shipments through land ports such as Benapole after a four-month hiatus.

On the supply side, the Food Ministry released 574,000 tonnes of rice through public distribution and social safety net programs between 1 July and 11 September—an 85 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Economists suggest that if these measures continue, retail rice prices may ease ahead of the Aman harvest in November–December, which typically contributes around 35 percent of annual rice production. They also emphasize that government stock levels, currently at 2.1 million tonnes, provide a stronger buffer than in previous years.