Election uncertainty looms as parties split over July Charter

Abu Jakir :

The country’s fragile consensus over sweeping constitutional and political reforms has begun to unravel, with deepening divisions among the country’s leading parties on how to implement the much-discussed July Charter.

The disagreement has amplified uncertainty over the timing and credibility of the next national election, which several leaders warn must be held by February to avert crisis.

At the heart of the dispute lies the question of whether the Charter – a blueprint for reforms born out of last year’s mass uprising – should be given immediate legal standing, or left for the next elected parliament to implement.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has argued strongly for the latter, insisting that constitutional legitimacy demands deferring action until an elected legislature is in place.

“We too believe this is the only legitimate, legal, and constitutional path,” said Salahuddin Ahmed, a BNP standing committee member, echoing Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus’s August 5 speech in which he stressed that reforms should be realized by parliament.

But Jamaat-e-Islami and the newly formed National Citizen Party (NCP), along with student leaders who spearheaded the July movement, are demanding immediate legal codification.

They contend that postponing the Charter risks diluting the movement’s achievements and allowing political elites to backtrack once in power. Analysts suggest that BNP, sensing a real chance to return to government through elections, is resisting pre-election commitments, while its rivals are leveraging the issue to corner the party.

The standoff has left the National Consensus Commission, the interim authority overseeing the reform roadmap, struggling to forge unity. Experts warn that without a breakthrough, the Charter could falter even before the election campaign begins.

“The July-August movement was about ousting Awami League’s rule, not drafting a reform charter,” one analyst said. “The polarization we are seeing now shows how fragile the consensus remains.”

The uncertainty surrounding reforms has fed into a broader anxiety over the election itself. Speaking at a Dhaka Reporters’ Unity event on Tuesday, Mahmudur Rahman Manna, president of Nagorik Oikya, cautioned that Bangladesh would plunge into “deep crisis” if polls were not held by February. “Without elections, there is no alternative,” he said.

“To stop the rise of fascist forces, we need an inclusive and acceptable election. Political parties, the army, and law enforcement must work together – otherwise the next generation will face a terrible fate.”
Manna also pointed to recent violence at Chittagong University, where two students remain in intensive care following clashes.

The administration’s inaction and the eventual military intervention, he said, underscored how fragile the security environment has become ahead of elections. He added that while he respected Chief Adviser Yunus, “if he fails to unite all parties, the people will lose hope.”

Other leaders voiced similar warnings. Zonayed Saki, coordinator of Ganosamhati Andolon, said that while political parties have achieved some consensus, unresolved questions must ultimately be settled by the electorate.

“If anyone believes that only their demands must be accepted, that is not democracy but the path of coercion,” he said.

Revolutionary Workers Party leader Saiful Haque noted that public trust was eroding due to controversial government decisions, and urged the interim administration to “rebuild confidence quickly” by restructuring itself and ensuring a credible Election Commission.

With reform talks stalled and the electoral calendar still unsettled, analysts say Bangladesh is entering a precarious period. The July Charter was intended as a unifying vision for a post-uprising future, but the political wrangling it has unleashed now threatens to derail both reform and election alike.