Does Imran’s conviction threaten PTI-govt negotiations?

Al Jazeera :

When Omar Ayub Khan, the leader of the opposition and a member of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), presented the party’s charter of demands to Ayaz Sadiq, the speaker of the country’s National Assembly, on Thursday, it seemed like the longstanding impasse between the government and the nation’s most popular party might finally be resolved.
However, just 24 hours later, Imran Khan, former prime minister and PTI founder, was sentenced to 14 years in prison by an accountability court on charges of misuse of authority and corruption.
The two sides had initiated negotiations late last year on several contentious issues, including the release of imprisoned PTI leaders – whom the party labels “political prisoners” – and addressing alleged electoral fraud in last year’s controversial elections.
So far, three rounds of talks, moderated by National Assembly Speaker Sadiq, have taken place, with PTI presenting its charter of demand in the last meeting.
The government is expected to respond to those demands within seven days. Yet, Khan’s conviction has reignited concerns that the past three years of political agitation could return, plunging Pakistan back into chaos as the country grapples with security and economic crises.
Aasiya Riaz, joint director of the independent think tank Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), emphasised the importance of continuing dialogue.
“Talks aimed at meaningful outcomes, for the sake of the country, must proceed,” she told Al Jazeera.
“Both sides, the establishment-backed government and the PTI, might revert to their respective tactics of pressure and agitation, respectively. This would lead to chaos and uncertainty, but eventually, they would have to return to the negotiating table,” Riaz added.
Imran Khan was ousted in April 2022 through a parliamentary vote of no confidence. He alleged a conspiracy between Pakistan’s powerful military, his political rivals and the United States to remove him from power.
The military, considered Pakistan’s most influential power broker, has directly ruled the country for nearly three of its 76 years since independence. While no prime minister in Pakistan’s history has completed their tenure, three of four military dictators ruled for nearly a decade each.
Khan, who was once thought to enjoy the military’s backing, rose to power in August 2018 before falling out of favour.
Both the US and the military denied his accusations, but his ouster prompted a significant crackdown on PTI, with Khan leading multiple long marches and protests, railing against the establishment, as the military is euphemistically known in Pakistan.
Things came to a head on May 9, 2023, when Khan was briefly detained in the Al-Qadir Trust case – the corruption case in which Khan was convicted on Friday.
His release within two days did little to quell the unrest as PTI supporters rampaged nationwide, targeting public buildings, military offices and installations, including the army headquarters in Rawalpindi.
Thousands of PTI members were arrested, and more than 100 were tried under military laws, with more than 80 sentenced to three to 10 years in prison. Khan also faces charges of inciting mutiny and “terrorism” related to those events.