Hasina’s return will be viewed more positively in South Asia

UNB :
With the opposition BNP boycotting the January 7 polls, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her party, Awami League, are all but guaranteed a fourth consecutive term.

Five countries in South Asia will hold elections this year, and the first – in Bangladesh on Sunday (January 7) – features the least uncertainty.

Many Western countries value their trade ties with Bangladesh, given its powerful garment industry, and perceive it as a strategically significant state situated in the heart of the Indo-Pacific.

But they cannot rule out punitive post-election steps, including trade sanctions. Either way, bad blood between Dhaka and the West – especially Washington – will certainly linger post-election, according to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief by Michael Kugelman.

By contrast, Hasina’s return will be viewed more positively in South Asia, said the South Asia policy analyst.

Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at Wilson Center in Washington, DC, said that Sheikh Hasina enjoys strong support from India, which, like the Awami League, characterizes the opposition as a potentially destabilizing threat that could lead to the return of Islamism in Bangladesh.

Hasina’s push for connectivity resonates with Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, all of whom are pursuing new initiatives with Bangladesh.

The strong economic growth under her offers new opportunities for trade within a region where it lags, said the analyst.

Finally, her policy of balancing relations with both Beijing and New Delhi converges with that of the region’s other non-aligned states, said Kugelman.

Although foreign countries play an outsized role in Bangladeshi politics, it will be up to the people of Bangladesh to determine the country’s future direction, said the International Crisis Group on Thursday in a new report.