Cyclone Mocha likely to make landfall in Bangladesh May 14

Staff Reporter  :
‘Mocha’, now a deep depression over south east Bay of Bengal, may turn into a powerful super cyclone with time and is likely to cross Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar and Myanmar coast by Sunday with 160 to 200 km speed.

Meanwhile, country’s four maritime ports of Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Mongla and Payra have been advised to keep hoisted distant cautionary signal Number-1 after the deep depression over the Southeast Bay and adjoining areas has intensified.

However, Fire Service and Civil Defense said that at least 149 fire stations are ready in coastal districts to deal with the cyclone Mocha.
All fishing boats and trawlers over the North Bay and deep sea have been advised to remain close to the coast and proceed with caution. They are also advised not to venture into the deep sea.
Meanwhile, the Department of Agriculture Extension (DaE) has suggested the farmers to harvest their standing crops to avoid possible damage by the cyclone.

“Relief materials have already been sent to coastal districts. We are ready from all sides. InshaAllah, we will be able to successfully face the cyclone this time like every other time. Bangladesh Army, Navy and Coast Guard are ready,” Dr Enamur Rahman, State Minister for Relief and Disaster Management told reporters during a press briefing on Wednesday.

According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) forecast, the depression is likely to intensify further and turn into a cyclonic storm and move in a north-northwesterly direction till Thursday. Thereafter, it is likely to recurve gradually and move north-northwards.

The State Minister for Disaster Management and Relief said that the cyclonic storm Mocha may turn into a super cyclone by May 12 and hit the Bangladesh and Myanmar coast on May 14.

“It may earn huge strength by Saturday after turning into a cyclone and cross the Bangladesh and Myanmar coast by May 14,” Dr Enamur Rahman said, urging that whenever the signal number-5 and above would be hoisted, everyone must take shelter at cyclone centers. Necessary preparations have been taken.
The Met office has predicted rain or thundershowers at one or two places over Mymensingh and Sylhet divisions in next 24 hours.
According to Met office bulletin, “Severe heatwave sweeping over the districts of Rajshahi, Pabna, Bogura, Dinajpur, Nilphamari, Chuadanga, Kushtia and Patuakhali and mild to moderate heatwave elsewhere in the country may continue.”

Maximum sustained wind speed within 48 km of the deep depression centre is about 50kmph rising to 60kmph in gusts or squalls. Sea will remain moderate near the deep depression centre, the Met office said in its bulletin.

At 6pm on Wednesday, it was centred about 1,550km south of Chattogram port, 1,470km south of Cox’s Bazar port, 1,550 km south-southeast of Mongla port and 1,505km south-southeast of Payra port.

Meanwhile, the Indian Met Department on Wednesday warned that very severe cyclonic storm Mocha is likely to trigger a tidal surge with a height of 1.5 metres to 2.0 metres, risking inundating low-lying areas of South East Bangladesh coasts and North Myanmar at the time of landfall. Mocha is likely to slightly lose its strength before making landfall on May 14.
The IMD said while there is consensus among different cyclone forecast models that Mocha would make landfall along the south eastern coast of Bangladesh and northern coast of Myanmar between Cox’s Bazar and Kyaukpyu, there is a divergence of opinion about the exact landfall time and intensity of the cyclonic system.
Mocha is now in the form of a deep depression over south east Bay of Bengal and is very likely to move north north-westward and intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm tomorrow. It will evolve into a very severe cyclonic storm by May 11 over south east and adjoining central Bay of Bengal, said the latest IMD update tracking the path and intensity of the weather system.
Mocha is likely to change its direction and move north north-eastward around May 12 and would weaken slightly on May 13 before crossing Bangladesh and Myanmar coasts between Cox’s Bazar and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) on May 14 with maximum sustained wind speed of 110-120 Km per hour gusting up to 130 km per hour, according to IMD.

According to experts, cyclones generated during the warmest month of May can be very strong. There is a threat of such a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. So far, no one can say with absolute certainty that the deep depression, which is located about 1600 km from the coast of Bangladesh, will turn into a cyclone and hit Bangladesh.

Incidentally, 13 countries of the world decide the names of the cyclones created in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Since 2000, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar, Thailand, Sri Lanka and Oman of the World Meteorological Organization have been naming cyclones. According to the World Meteorological Organization/United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Yemen has named the upcoming cyclone ‘Mocha’.

Meteorologist Abul Kalam Mallick said that on Wednesday morning, the deep depression was 1,550 km south of Chittagong sea port, 1,470 km south of Cox’s Bazar sea port, 1,550 km south-east of Mongla sea port and 1,555 km south-south of Payra sea port was previously located. It is likely to intensify further in the north-northwest direction till May 11 and then change direction and gradually move north-northeast, the Meteorological Department said.

Mostafa Kamal Palash, Ph.D. Researcher on Meteorology and Climate at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada, said that there is a strong fear of this cyclone hitting the coast of Bangladesh directly between May 13 and 16. Reviewing the weather forecast models of different countries of the world, he said, the low pressure may turn into a deep depression by May 10, which has already happened and indicates the possibility of becoming a full-blown cyclone on May 11. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department is also reporting the same fear.

Meteorologist Omar Farooq said that the maximum wind speed of this cyclone when it hits the coast will be 160 to 200 km. In addition to heavy rains with gale force winds, coastal districts of Chittagong division are feared to be inundated by high tide of seven to 10 feet.