Corona Fresh Hike Causes & Remedies

Dr Mohammad Didare Alam Muhsin :
Corona infection is on the rise again in the country. Infection and death tolls are increasing very fast. Why is that? What is the reason behind this? Was it expected? If so, how much is our preparation to deal with it? When the danger is already in our midst, are we moving forward with the right action plan? To overcome the crisis, alleviate the suffering of the people and keep the number of deaths to a minimum, the issues need to be closely monitored and reviewed.
For good reason, not only the scientists, but also the Prime Minister herself was warning the public about a possible second wave of Corona. God willing, the winter has passed well. Meanwhile, the people of the country were praying fervently, if the Corona vaccine also came. Fortunately, the country also received a shipment of vaccine earlier this year, which was an important milestone in our ongoing war against Corona. On the other hand, some scientists were coming up with the idea that, by the end of the last year, the prevalence of infection in the general population could reach the level of producing herd immunity among people.
In this situation, a large section of the public was left feeling fluffy. In January-February this year, the infection rate dropped to its all-time low. Some people started thinking, may be this evil of Corona is gone. Many began to care less about issues such as wearing masks and social distancing. There were socio-political and religious gatherings, wedding ceremonies, etc. all around. Tourist spots found a huge turnout. As a result, the wave that did not come in the winter finally came, but at the beginning of the summer. Infections began to increase from the beginning of March, and soon the acceleration took a high momentum. This second wave is more severe than the first, not only in the rate of infection, but also in its morbidity. According to a doctor, this time as many as 40 to 50 percent of the patients need oxygen.
According to the latest statistics, the daily infection rate in the country has already crossed 7,000, breaking all past records. According to experts, the negligence of people to health rules in recent days has undoubtedly played a major role in increasing the rate of infection. However, the exact cause of the sudden increase in the rate of infection is a matter of research. In addition to the neglect of health rules, many other factors might have played a role here. Mutations might have made the virus more powerful. In addition, genome sequencing of patient samples has also confirmed the presence of UK variants and South African variants of the virus in the country, which are capable of transmitting much faster. There is also the opinion that when many people stay in a closed room with AC / fan running during hot weather, it becomes an ideal environment for the spread of Corona infection. (COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020 – Volume 26, Number 7-July 2020 – Emerging Infectious Diseases journal – CDC).
It is a matter of concern that almost all the beds available for Corona patients in the country’s hospitals, including general and ICU beds, are now almost fully filled. The health system of the country might collapse if the rate at which Corona infections are increasing could not be stopped. Although a shipment of vaccines has already arrived in the country, it is a matter of time to get the required number of vaccines to bring a significant proportion of people in the country under vaccination and complete the implementation of this program. Apart from that, the vaccines that have been developed so far may not be equally effective against all the new variants of the coronavirus that are emerging through mutations. So, the expectation that the level of Corona infection can be brought under control very soon through vaccination is far from over.
Against this backdrop, the government has announced a ‘lockdown’ for a week, subject to certain restrictions, to curb the rapid spread of the infection. However, there were two immediate problems. First, a large number of people dependent on daily income are running towards the village. In many cases, people are traveling without paying heed to health rules and thus playing a role in spreading the infection on the way. Moreover, many feel that this village-bound flow of people is spreading the infection from urban to remote areas of the country. Second, with the sudden announcement of a ‘lockdown’ without proper alternative arrangements, the office-going people are suffering to get to the institutions or factories that are open. Many believe that this measure would have been more effective if it had been taken in early March when there was a clear trend of increasing infection.
Although announced for a week, many believe that the ‘lockdown’ could be extended. In the light of past experience, it can be said that it is very difficult to impose and implement a complete lockdown on the socio-economic reality of our country. The question remains as to how effective a partial lockdown can be. Good results may be expected if the offices and factories are run in multiple schedules a day with not more than 50 per cent of the officers and employees by rotation. This on the one hand will control the presence of many people in the office / factory and on the other hand also reduce the transportation problems. In financial organizations like banks or other service providers, where a large number of customers congregate, reducing the transaction time would rather increase the crowding of people. This can create an environment of Corona proliferation rather than control.
Since it is not easy to successfully implement extreme measures like ‘lockdown’ in a country like ours, we should place more emphasis on ensuring measures like mask wearing and social distancing. These tactics do not involve any financial tug-of-war like a lockdown. The reason for our limited success in the past in this regard is that we have not been able to motivate the people properly. This is not possible only through policing. Moreover, the manpower of the police is also limited. If necessary, the army can also be involved for a limited time. However, it seems that the best results can come if the local people could effectively be involved. If volunteer teams consisting of local political/ social activists and students/ teachers, irrespective of party affiliation, could be mobilized in every locality in collaboration with the law enforcement agencies, it can certainly be expected to motivate the public. The results, that may come this way, may not be achieved by the law enforcement alone.

(Dr Muhsin is Professor of Pharmacy, Jahangirnagar University).