NBR faces Tk 8,899cr shortfalls in FY2025-26

Muhammad Ayub Ali :

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has once again missed its revenue collection target, posting a shortfall of Tk 8,899 crore in the first quarter (July–September) of the 2025–26 fiscal year.

According to the latest NBR data, the target for the three-month period was Tk 99,904 crore, while the actual collection stood at Tk 91,005 crore. The sluggish performance reflects continued weakness in business and trade activities.

NBR officials said the downturn in imports and domestic production slowed customs and income tax receipts.

However, they remain optimistic that collections will rebound in the latter part of the fiscal year as recovery efforts and enforcement drives gain pace.

In July, the NBR collected Tk 27,247 crore against a target of Tk 30,111 crore, resulting in a deficit of Tk 2,864 crore.

In August, collection stood at Tk 27,174 crore versus a target of Tk 30,889 crore, leaving a shortfall of Tk 3,715 crore. In September, the NBR collected Tk 36,582 crore against the Tk 38,904 crore targets,
with a deficit of Tk 2,322 crore.

Despite the shortfalls, NBR sources said collection trends were slightly better in September compared to the first two months, suggesting gradual improvement.

Of the three major revenue streams — income tax, import duty, and VAT — only VAT achieved its target during the first quarter. In the first quarter, income tax fell short, with Tk 28,482 crore collected against a target of Tk 35,023 crore, leaving the largest deficit of Tk 6,541 crore.

Import duty also missed its target, collecting Tk 27,528 crore versus Tk 30,595 crore, a shortfall of Tk 3,067 crore. Only VAT exceeded expectations, collecting Tk 34,995 crore, Tk 710 crore above its target of Tk 34,285 crore, making it the only revenue stream to show positive growth.

NBR officials noted that higher domestic consumption and improved compliance helped VAT collections exceed expectations, while slow import growth and weak corporate earnings dragged down customs and income tax performance.

Ambitious yearly target and IMF-linked reforms For FY2025–26, the NBR has been tasked with collecting Tk 499,000 crore, a crucial part of the government’s effort to strengthen fiscal stability amid its $4.7 billion loan programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Under the terms set by the IMF, Bangladesh is obligated to boost annual revenue by 1.5% of GDP, remove all tax exemptions by 2027, and develop a detailed revenue strategy by December 2025.

To meet these conditions, the NBR is focusing on expanding the tax net, enhancing compliance through digital monitoring, curbing tax evasion, and recovering unpaid dues.