Professor Rayhan Ahmed Tapader :
The Middle East is on the brink of a major conflict after Iran’s recent retaliatory attack on Israel.
The reckless actions of Netanyahu and his wartime cabinet should not be forgotten amid this ongoing crisis. Israel’s prime minister has been waging a shadow war with Iran for more than a decade. He has committed many incidents of murder and assault.
Although Israel has not claimed responsibility for the murders of nuclear scientists and Iranian mercenary soldiers, secret killings continue unabated. But after October 7, the scope of this list of Israel increased. For example, Seyed Razi Mousavi, a senior Iranian military officer, was assassinated in Damascus.
Iran’s response was still indirect and weak. After the bombing of an extended section of the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital, the country changed its response. Several top military officers of the country were killed in that attack. Iran blames Israel for a brazen attack on its sovereignty.
Various calculations are going on about the Iran-Israel war. Everyone is now busy trying to match the equation whether war will start between these two countries on a larger scale.
The experts of international politics are doing a careful analysis of who gained or lost in this apparent short attack and counter attack. In fact, it is difficult to say in which direction this war will turn. Because this war is no longer limited to Iran-Israel.
Apart from the neighboring countries, the world is also involved with this. Amid the war of words and military attacks of Iran-Israel, all the surrounding countries, including the United States, China, Russia, and Turkey, have talked about this war.
Someone made a threat. Someone suggested keeping the peace. For the time being, Iran-Israel war seems to be going on, but many countries are already involved in this war in various ways.
Iran has been considered Israel’s worst enemy and potential destroyer for years. Now the question is, what will be the nature of the significant response that Israel is talking about.
There is also the question whether Iran will counterattack or not. Israeli minister Benny Ganz said that Israel will attack Iran by forming a regional alliance, according to time and will. The US, Britain and Israel’s other allies should make it clear to Netanyahu that military, diplomatic and political support is conditional.
Only a legitimate and proportionate response will bring these allies to Israel. It is best if Israel does not counterattack. If we analyze the various aspects of this war, it can be seen that Iran had no choice but to attack Israel.
Israel has been provoking Iran in various ways for a long time. They have carried out several secret attacks inside Iran. Iran has accused Israel of killing several Iranian nuclear scientists. In addition, several strategic installations of Iran were attacked in Iraq and Syria.
Two things could keep the US out of this war. Its allies, including the United States, are now tired of the pressure of the long war in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. The United States could not take special advantage in the war in Ukraine.
The vast territory of Ukraine has been lost to Russia. Russia suffered a lot of damage, many Russian generals were killed, even though this news was reported in the Western media, Ukraine could not recover the lost land.
This proves that the United States is not in a very advantageous position. And Europe in particular cannot bear the burden of another major conflict. Wherever the war broke out, refugees flocked to all of Europe. Together with Syria and Ukraine, about 3 million refugees are staying in Germany alone.
In this situation, when the Iran-Israel war starts, refugees from both countries will start their journey towards Europe. Not only these two countries; Refugees from their neighboring countries will also join this journey.
After the latest attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, Iran had no choice. If Iran did not retaliate or sit quietly digesting, then Israel’s attack on Iran would have increased. At the same time, the Iranian rulers may have attacked Israel to maintain their existence.
This attack will not protect Netanyahu; it will also give some kind of advantage to the rulers of Iran. Most importantly, whether Iran wins or loses this war, the leadership of the Muslim world is now virtually in Iran’s hands. Because no other Muslim-majority country speaks so directly against Israel except Iran. So this war is no longer a shadow war, this war is open.
More importantly, Iran exposed itself after the Damascus attack. Tehran can no longer hide behind Lebanon’s Hezbollah or Yemen’s Houthis. Netanyahu has challenged Tehran to a kind of wrestling match. Tehran has no choice but to not respond. But this belief is also wrong. Like Netanyahu, Khamenei and Iran’s hardline president Ibrahim Raisi had more options.
Iran could have raised its grievances at the United Nations or at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. They could have taken help from their allies in G20 or BRICS. Iran could have kept quiet by threatening to retaliate. In this way they could get the cooperation of anti-Western countries of the Global South such as China and Russia.
Instead, Iran’s leaders fell into Netanyahu’s trap. Iran is now isolated from the international community. Besides, the people of Iran now have to wait for Israel’s response. The stronger the backlash, the more unpopular Iran’s government will become.
Even mass uprisings may occur. Because over the past few years, Israel has been continuously provoking Iran, and it is in Lebanon, Syria, and even on Iranian soil. It must be foolish to think that the rope Israel is pulling on will never be torn. That time seems to have come.
(The writer is a researcher and columnist [email protected])
