Experts warn of water fallout: Indus treaty pause seen as blow to river diplomacy
Al Mamun Harun Ur Rashid :
Experts and environmentalists have strongly criticised India’s recent unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, warning that the move sets a dangerous precedent for managing transboundary rivers in a region where water is vital for agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, and biodiversity.
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, had long been hailed as a rare model of cooperation between India and Pakistan-withstanding wars, political crises, and diplomatic standstills.
However, India has now suspended its implementation, citing the killing of tourists in a terror attack in Kashmir’s Pahalgam.
“This move sends the wrong message,” said Professor Amena Mohsin, an expert in international relations, speaking to The New Nation.
“The narrative India is presenting may serve domestic audiences, but unilaterally bypassing the treaty is not a constructive or healthy step.”
Following the Pahalgam incident, India blamed Pakistan for the attack, which Islamabad categorically denied, calling instead for an independent investigation.
Experts have pointed out that the attack occurred within Indian territory under tight security, and that there is no conclusive evidence linking the Pakistani state to the incident.
“This is clearly a security lapse within India,” Professor Mohsin added. “To punish another country by cutting off water without definitive proof is disproportionate.”
South Asia is already grappling with significant water stress. Numerous rivers cross national boundaries, supporting millions of lives and livelihoods. India and Bangladesh alone share 54 rivers, including the Ganges and Teesta, which are vital for agriculture, drinking water, and ecological balance.
The Ganges Water Treaty between India and Bangladesh, signed in 1996, is set to expire in 2026. Despite repeated calls, a long-awaited agreement on Teesta River water remains elusive. In the absence of progress, Bangladesh has turned to China for assistance with a proposed joint water management project aimed at storing and regulating Teesta water for agriculture and flood control-an initiative that has reportedly made India uneasy.
During a recent visit to China, Chief Adviser to Bangladesh’s Interim Government, Professor Muhammad Yunus, invited the Chinese government to support Teesta water management. Local communities in northern Bangladesh, through which the Teesta flows, have also expressed strong support for the project.
“When Bangladesh seeks to pursue a comprehensive water management project on the Teesta with Chinese assistance, India becomes visibly irritated,” said Shafiur Rahman, General Secretary of the Teesta Bachao, Nadi Bachao Sangram Parishad, to The New Nation.
“However, national consensus is essential for implementing the project, as it involves complex geopolitical dynamics between China, India, and Bangladesh.”
He added, “People are demanding the excavation of the Teesta River as a first step. The river has become shallow and suffers from erosion. Stopping water flow unilaterally by any country is unjust-water is a fundamental right and a shared resource.”
The Sangram Parishad plans to hold a rally from Rangpur Press Club on 4 April, calling for cross-party support to push for the project’s implementation.
“India must stop politicising water,” Shafiur Rahman stated. “Transboundary rivers are common natural assets. Water is life – it should connect, not divide, the people of South Asia.”
Dr Zhang Wei, Associate Professor at the School of International Studies, Sichuan University, China, echoed similar concerns, noting that water has now become a central pillar in South Asia’s geopolitical strategy.
“The lack of robust transboundary water agreements increases the risk of escalation,” he said. “To ensure regional stability, renewed efforts towards equitable water-sharing frameworks -such as a possible Brahmaputra treaty-will be crucial.”
He emphasised that such agreements must strike a balance between national sovereignty and shared climate challenges. “China hopes the issue can be resolved through bilateral negotiations without further casualties and looks forward to a peaceful, stable South Asia.”
Meanwhile, tensions continue to simmer along the India-Pakistan border, with both sides engaging in shows of military strength but avoiding direct dialogue.
Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Adviser, Md. Touhid Hossain, underscored the importance of diplomacy and dialogue in ensuring peace and stability in the region.
“Our position is clear-we want peace in South Asia,” he told reporters at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “While India and Pakistan have had a historically tense relationship, Bangladesh does not want to see a conflict that endangers the lives and wellbeing of people in the region.”
Hossain added that Bangladesh values its bilateral ties with both India and Pakistan and supports peaceful resolution of disputes. “Whether through direct talks or mediated efforts, we hope tensions can be reduced and peace maintained.”