NN Special :
The 30-year Ganges water-sharing treaty between Bangladesh and India is set to expire in December 2026, raising concerns about the country’s future access to transboundary river flows and cooperation.
The water sharing agreement profoundly affects the lives of around 630 million people who directly or indirectly depend on the Ganges river for their livelihood and survival, reports International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development.
This treaty governs the dry-season (January-May) flow from India to Bangladesh through the Farakka Barrage.
The treaty is based on the discharge of the Ganges at Farakka over the period 1949-1988, which is divided into two parts: 1949-1973 (pre-Farakka barrage) and 1975-1988 (post-Farakka barrage). Since 1975, however, the dry season discharge of the Ganges towards Bangladesh has dramatically declined due to increased upstream uses for agriculture and other purposes in India.
River and water management expert and BRAC University’s emeritus professor Ainun Nishat told the New Nation, “There are some areas in Bangladesh that face severe freshwater shortages … not just drinking water, but water for agriculture, navigation, and fish cultivation is also affected.
Bangladeshi residents are being displaced. Already, many from Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, and Barguna are moving north or to other places but Bangladesh does not officially admit it,” he said.
Bangladesh often claims that during many dry?season periods, it did not receive its stipulated share under the Ganges treaty. For example, reviewing 1997–2016 data found that in 94 of 300 ten?day periods, Bangladesh got less water than it was supposed to, based on the treaty’s provisions, reports The Diplomat.
“India is not going to distribute water considering Bangladesh’s economic needs, but there are major social implications as well,” he said.
“This is not just a legal matter but an economic, social, and institutional issue too, but who will take responsibility?” Nishat asked.
“Both countries have a Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), but these bodies are politically influenced and practically powerless. As a result, the old average flow values used in the treaty do not match the current reality,” Nishat said.
Dr. Mohammad Abul Hossen Tuhin, Director of the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), told the New Nation that efforts are underway to renew the treaty.
“Bangladesh and India will form a joint technical committee within the next three months to renew the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty,” Tuhin said.
The Bangladesh-India Joint Rivers Commission is scheduled to meet in New Delhi on 9 September 2025, to review the Ganges River Water-Sharing Treaty.
According to the research, published by the International Journal of Water (2007), titled “The Ganges water-sharing treaty: risk analysis of the negotiated discharge,” conducted by M Monirul Qader Mirza, a water management expert and adjunct professor at the University of Toronto Scarborough, if more water continues to be taken upstream of Farakka both India and Bangladesh may not be able to get the amount of water promised in the treaty. In two of the years between 1997 and 2001, Bangladesh did not receive its full share of water as per the terms of the treaty.
“If India continues to take more water upstream, Bangladesh is likely to suffer more than India in the future, which is a serious concern for Bangladesh,” Nishat said.
A 30-year (1996-2026) agreement was signed in December 1996. However, it did not have any “guarantee clause” like the 1977 agreement.
In the years 2002-2008, Bangladesh proposed amending the agreement to include a “guarantee clause” like the 1977 agreement and an arbitration provision, neither of which had been implemented yet.
According to Article 2 of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), both countries agreed to work for basin-wide management of the joint rivers. But both parties are yet to start working together for basin-wide management but the initiatives are still underway due to some challenges, including the Covid crisis. An MoU was signed by the heads of state of both countries in 2011.
Mohammad Abul Hossen, head of the Bangladeshi delegation to the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), told the media on March 4, 2025, that the Ganges Water Sharing Agreement is being adhered to.
“Water flow was satisfactory in January but decreased slightly in February,” he said.
Officials of Bangladesh and India held the 86th meeting (March 6-7, 2025) of the Joint River Commission in Kolkata, where they discussed the pros and cons of renewing the 30-year-old Ganges water-sharing treaty, which comes up for renewal next year (2026).
Bangladesh has decided on April 17, 2025, to ratify the UN Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (UN Water Convention).
Bangladesh interim government chief adviser’s high representative Khalilur Rahman sought optimum cooperation from India on Tuesday (April 8, 2025) in renewing the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, as it will expire in 2026.
Dr Khalilur told the media that Dhaka and New Delhi continue to contact each other so that talks over the renewal of the water treaty could be started as soon as possible.
“We have already formed an internal committee to deal with this matter,” he said. “India has also agreed to work on this issue, and we expect to formally renew the agreement very soon,” Dr. Tuhin said.
“We are dedicated to addressing all urgent and relevant issues related to Ganges River water sharing,” Dr. Tuhin added.
According to Bangladesh Water Development Board reports (3rd pole, 2021 and 22), the water flow of the Teesta River into Bangladesh drops drastically during the dry season (December to May), often falling below 500 cubic 1feet per second (cusecs).
This significant reduction is largely attributed to India’s Gozaldoba Barrage in West Bengal that diverts a substantial portion of the river’s water upstream for irrigation in northern India, causing acute water shortages in the downstream regions (Rangpur, Nilphamari, and Lalmonirhat) in Bangladesh.
“Every country has its laws, and India has specific laws regarding international water disputes, but only the law would be helpful to address the problem,” Dr. Ainun Nishat said.
“Does Bangladesh have any kind of political power, so that Bangladesh will tell India anything on water sharing issues? The 30-year Ganges treaty was the political outcome,” Dr. Ainun Nishat said.
“That will severely damage Bangladesh’s agriculture, water availability, economy, society, and food security.”
Dr. Ainun Nishat said that India raises its voice where its interests lie, and Bangladesh must do the same thing. We must speak up on the issues, especially those activities that are harming us.
“But in all discussions on the Ganges Water Sharing Agreement so far, I haven’t seen this issue addressed. I don’t know whether the current government (Interim) will take this up or if it will be left to the next elected one; however, I can see a major crisis ahead,” Dr. Ainun Nishat added.
“During the dry season, we get very little water, and I don’t think this problem will be solved. According to my engineering knowledge, it cannot be fixed unless Bangladesh and the upstream country come to a clear agreement on water distribution,” Dr. Ainun Nishat further added.
Regarding the dry-season issue
“The whole concept of ‘water sharing’ is flawed, but somehow our experts, engineers, politicians, and bureaucrats are still stuck on dry-season flows, which have persisted since the Pakistan era, even since 1972,” Nishat said.
“We get plenty of water during the monsoon. Today is August 1, 2025. If I go to Teesta now, I’d find 2 to 3 lakh cusecs of water. If it goes beyond 3, everyone starts panicking about floods. But in the dry season, there’s only 6,000 cusecs, and India takes all of it. And Bangladesh gets nothing,” he added.
“By storing water upstream and if it gradually throughout the year, the water crisis would be solved. So, by storing monsoon water and releasing it gradually year-round, Bangladesh can also generate hydropower, which would be the real solution,” Dr. Nishat recommended.
“But right now, there is no agreement between Bangladesh and India for year-round water management, but I have never supported the water ‘sharing’ term,” Dr. Ainun Nishat said.
