IMF cuts BD growth projection to 4.5pc

Staff Reporter :

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday revised its forecast for Bangladesh’s economic growth for this financial year, predicting a growth rate of 4.5 percent, down from its earlier projection of 6.6 percent made in April.

This revised estimate aligns with predictions from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), both of which have also lowered their growth forecasts for Bangladesh. The IMF’s new estimate marks the lowest projected growth in nearly 20 years, excluding the pandemic-affected fiscal year 2019-20.

In its latest edition of the World Economic Outlook released yesterday, the IMF stated that the global battle against inflation has largely been won, although price pressures continue in some countries. However, inflation in Bangladesh is expected to remain high, potentially reaching 10.7 percent in FY25, up from 9.7 percent in the previous year.

Earlier, the World Bank projected that Bangladesh’s GDP growth would decelerate to 4 percent in FY25, due to subdued investment and industrial activities, before accelerating to 5.5 percent in FY26 and returning to a robust growth trajectory thereafter.

The World Bank also forecasted that inflation would gradually moderate by the end of FY25, with overall inflation expected to decline to 9 percent in FY25 from 9.7 percent in FY24, and further to 7.5 percent in FY26, according to its October edition of the Bangladesh Development Update, released last week.

Similarly, last month, the ADB lowered its growth outlook for Bangladesh, predicting the economy would expand by 5.1 percent in FY24-25, down from its April forecast of 6.6 percent.