How US poll could change state of the world
BBC :
When US President Joe Biden walked through Kyiv in February 2023 on a surprise visit to show solidarity with Volodymyr Zelensky, his Ukrainian counterpart, air sirens were wailing.
“I felt something… more strongly than ever before,” he later recalled. “America is a beacon to the world.”
The world now waits to see who takes charge of this self-styled beacon after Americans make their choice in next week’s presidential election.
Will Kamala Harris carry on in Biden’s footsteps with her conviction that in “these unsettled times, it is clear America cannot retreat”? Or will it be Donald Trump with his hope that “Americanism, not globalism” will lead the way?
We live in a world where the value of US global influence is under question. Regional powers are going their own way, autocratic regimes are making their own alliances, and the devastating wars in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere are raising uncomfortable questions about the value of Washington’s role.
But America matters by dint of its economic and military strength, and its major role in many alliances.
I turned to some informed observers for their reflections on the global consequences of this very consequential election.
Military might “I cannot sugarcoat these warnings,” says Rose Gottemoeller, Nato’s former deputy secretary general.
“Donald Trump is Europe’s nightmare, with echoes of his threat to withdraw from Nato in everyone’s ears.”
Washington’s defence spending amounts to two-thirds of the military budgets of Nato’s 31 other members. Beyond Nato, the US spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined, including China and Russia.
Trump boasts he’s playing hardball to force other Nato countries to meet their spending targets, which is 2% of their GDP – only 23 of the member nations have hit this target in 2024. But his erratic statements still jar.
If Ms Harris wins, Ms Gottemoeller believes “Nato will no doubt be in good Washington hands.” But she has a warning there too.
“She will be ready to continue working with Nato and the European Union to achieve victory in Ukraine, but she will not back off on [spending] pressure on Europe.”
But Harris’s team in the White House will have to govern with the Senate or the House, which could both soon be in Republican hands, and will be less inclined to back foreign wars than their Democratic counterparts.
There’s a growing sense that no matter who becomes president, pressure will mount on Kyiv to find ways out of this war as US lawmakers become increasingly reluctant to pass huge aid packages.
Whatever happens, Ms Gottemoeller says, “I do not believe that Nato must fall apart.” Europe will need to “step forward to lead.”
The peacemaker?
The next US president will have to work in a world confronting its greatest risk of major power confrontation since the Cold War.
“The US remains the most consequential international actor in matters of peace and security”, Comfort Ero, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, tells me. She adds a caveat, “but its power to help resolve conflicts is diminished.”
Wars are becoming ever harder to end. “Deadly conflict is becoming more intractable, with big-power competition accelerating and middle powers on the rise,” is how Ms Ero describes the landscape.
Wars like Ukraine pull in multiple powers, and conflagrations such as Sudan pit regional players with competing interests against each other, and some more invested in war than in peace.
America is losing the moral high ground, Ms Ero says. “Global actors notice that it applies one standard to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and another to Israel’s in Gaza.
The war in Sudan has seen terrible atrocities but gets treated as a second-tier issue.” A win by Ms Harris, she says, “represents continuity with the current administration.”
If it’s Trump, he “might give Israel an even freer hand in Gaza and elsewhere, and has intimated he could try to cut a Ukraine deal with Moscow over Kyiv’s head.”
On the Middle East, the Democratic candidate has repeatedly echoed Mr Biden’s firm backing of Israel’s “right to defend itself.” But she’s also made a point of emphasising that “the killing of innocent Palestinians has to stop.”