H. M. Nazmul Alam :
In any country, numbers are more than just numbers. They are the foundation upon which policies are designed, economies are managed, and futures are planned.
Population figures determine everything from per capita income to the allocation of health resources. Agricultural output data informs food security strategies. Employment figures shape education policy and skill development.
But when these numbers themselves are in question, the very foundation of governance begins to crumble. Bangladesh today faces precisely this problem: a crisis of trust in its statistics.
Nowhere is this crisis more visible than in the simple but fundamental question—how many people live in the country? Depending on which official source one consults, Bangladesh’s population could be 169 million, 172 million, 175 million, or even 190 million.
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the Election Commission, and international organizations like the United Nations Population Fund all present different figures, sometimes diverging by more than 20 million people.
Even within the BBS itself, the numbers from the 2022 Census and the 2023 Sample Vital Registration System do not align. In a country where over two percent of the population is being replenished by new births each year, this lack of clarity is not a mere technicality—it is a structural flaw that reverberates across the economy.
The contradictions do not end at the national level. Even the size of Dhaka’s population varies depending on which agency one consults. Part of this is due to differing administrative boundaries used for calculations. Part of it is due to whether expatriates are included or excluded. The Election Commission counts them, while the BBS does not.
Methodological ambiguities, outdated data collection techniques, and the absence of real-time systems ensure that these discrepancies persist. The result is not just confusion, but a steady erosion of public confidence in official numbers.
Globally, the production of real-time demographic data has become a norm rather than an exception. In countries like the United States, population figures are updated constantly, reflecting births and deaths on a daily basis.
Hospitals feed information directly into central databases, allowing governments to know exactly how many people were born or died yesterday. This enables accurate planning in everything from healthcare to pensions.
By contrast, Bangladesh relies on outdated census methods that produce figures already obsolete by the time they are published. When the BBS releases data today, it is often years old, and in the case of rapidly changing indicators like population, almost instantly unreliable.
The implications of such uncertainty are far-reaching. Consider per capita income, a metric closely watched both domestically and internationally. If the denominator—the population—is unknown, the accuracy of the entire calculation collapses.
A difference of 20 million in population size can significantly alter per capita income figures, affecting how Bangladesh positions itself on the global development stage.
Employment planning, assessment of dependency ratios, estimation of healthcare needs, and projections of food demand are all distorted by unreliable population data.
At a more immediate level, it creates mismatches between supply and demand, which can manifest as shortages of essential goods, price volatility, or misallocated resources in critical sectors like education and healthcare.
This is not a problem confined to demographics. Across sectors, the credibility of statistics has often been questioned. From growth rates to poverty levels, allegations of political influence and selective reporting have plagued official numbers for years.
In the past, data from the BBS was accused of being tailored to suit the narratives of those in power. Once trust is eroded in this way, it becomes extremely difficult to rebuild.
Even when data may be accurate, the shadow of past politicization leads experts and citizens alike to doubt its validity. Numbers that should serve as neutral guides become subjects of controversy, eroding their value as tools of policymaking.
What is striking is how preventable much of this confusion is. In developed countries, national databases integrate demographic events in real time. Each birth and death, recorded at the hospital or local administrative level, is immediately transmitted to the central server.
This requires not only technological infrastructure but also coordination among agencies. In Bangladesh, hospitals—particularly at upazila or union levels—do not consistently record such data in a systematic way. The absence of a central, interoperable database means that figures must be stitched together from outdated surveys, producing numbers riddled with inconsistencies.
This will not be easy. Building such systems requires investment, training, and a cultural shift within bureaucracies long accustomed to outdated practices. Yet the cost of inaction is far higher. Without reliable statistics, no policy—no matter how well-intentioned—can succeed. A nation cannot plan its future on shaky numbers.
There is also a political dimension that must be confronted honestly. Data should serve as a mirror, not as a painting. Too often, governments have been tempted to treat statistics as an instrument of image-building rather than a reflection of reality.
When numbers are massaged to present economic growth as higher or poverty as lower, the short-term political gain is purchased at the expense of long-term credibility. Breaking this cycle requires not just institutional reform but political will—a recognition that credibility in statistics is a national asset, not a partisan weapon.
The interim government has a unique opportunity to set such a precedent. It must go beyond pledges and lay down an enforceable framework that ensures independence and transparency in data production.
This framework should bind not only the present administration but future elected governments, preventing the backsliding that has so often plagued reform efforts in Bangladesh.
At its core, the crisis of statistics is a crisis of governance. Numbers are the language through which societies understand themselves. If that language is corrupted, the entire conversation of development becomes incoherent. Bangladesh, now standing at the cusp of demographic and economic transition, cannot afford such incoherence.
The challenge is clear: build a statistical system worthy of trust, modern in method, transparent in practice, and immune to manipulation. Without it, the nation will continue to stumble forward in the dark, guided not by facts but by approximations, assumptions, and illusions.
(The writeris an Academic, Journalist, and Political Analyst based in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Currently he is teaching at IUBAT. He can be reached at [email protected])
