Reuters :
Global financial markets delivered a rollercoaster ride in 2025, defying many predictions and underscoring the seismic impact of US President Donald Trump’s return to power. While world stocks rebounded from April’s “Liberation Day” tariffs crash, rising nearly 20 percent in their sixth year of double-digit gains over the last seven, other markets experienced dramatic, often unexpected moves.
Gold, traditionally a safe haven, is on track for its strongest year since 1979, surging nearly 70 percent, with silver and platinum outperforming even more, rising about 130 percent. Meanwhile, the US dollar lost nearly 10 percent, the euro rose 14 percent, the Swiss franc and Swedish krona gained 14.5 percent and 19 percent respectively, while the Japanese yen remained largely flat. Oil prices fell almost 17 percent, yet the riskiest junk bonds rallied sharply.
Cryptocurrency markets were similarly volatile. Bitcoin surged past $125,000 in October after Trump launched a memecoin and pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, only to crash to $88,000, ending the year down about 5.5 percent. The “Magnificent Seven” US tech giants lost some of their earlier shine, with AI darling Nvidia becoming the world’s first $5 trillion company in October, highlighting the uneven distribution of gains in the tech sector. Goldman Sachs estimates that the major AI hyperscalers spent nearly $400 billion in 2025 and project $530 billion in 2026, fueling both excitement and investor caution.
Trump’s return and policies had ripple effects across markets. European defense stocks jumped nearly 60 percent, anticipating reduced US military protection prompting rearmament across NATO countries. European banks recorded their best year since 1997, South Korean stocks surged 70 percent, and defaulted Venezuelan bonds approached 100 percent returns.
US Treasury yields also saw dramatic swings. The 30-year yield rose above 5.1 percent in May, its highest since 2007, before settling at 4.8 percent. Bond markets are closely monitoring the widening “term premia” gap, signaling renewed volatility.
Japan’s 30-year yields also neared record highs, even as local-currency emerging market debt had its best year since 2009.
Trump’s engagement with Russia helped the rouble surge 36 percent, while Ghana’s cedi led gold-producing countries with a 28 percent increase. Other emerging currencies like Poland’s zloty, Czech crown, Hungarian forint, and Taiwan’s dollar all showed double-digit gains, prompting analysts to suggest the 14-year bear cycle for EM currencies may be over.
The outlook for 2026 remains uncertain. Trump is gearing up for midterm elections and is expected to appoint a new head of the Federal Reserve, raising questions about the central bank’s independence. Markets will also watch elections in France, Britain, Japan, Israel, Colombia, Brazil, and Hungary. Analysts warn that AI developments, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and stimulus policies could continue to drive extreme market volatility.
Matt King, founder of Satori Insights, described the situation as “remarkable,” noting that valuations are stretched, easy-money policies are under pressure, and cracks are already visible in bond markets, gold, and cryptocurrency trends.
DoubleLine fund manager Bill Campbell summed up the year: “2025 has been a year of change and surprises, with trade wars, geopolitics, and debt all intertwined. Investors have seen big moves, but the real test will come in 2026 as uncertainties continue to unfold.”
