Prof. Rayhan Ahmed Tapader :
Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios.
Bangladesh is located in the northeastern part of South Asia. Most of the area of Bangladesh is less than 10 m above sea level and is vulnerable to climate change. Nowadays, climate change is a great challenge for most countries in the world and the country has already faced significant challenges from climate change, while making only a small contribution to global emissions.
The impact of climate change in Bangladesh is severe, affecting livelihoods, food and water security, ecosystems, and infrastructure, and climate-related hazards will be severe in the future. Bangladesh has already been facing a gradual increase in temperature and precipitation, while overall weather patterns are erratic and less predictable than before. Bangladesh is mainly an agricultural country and agricultural sectors occupy the majority of the labor force in the country.
Almost half of Bangladesh is directly or indirectly involved in agricultural-related work. Rainfall plays an important role in Bangladesh’s agricultural production. So a slight rainfall pattern change in Bangladesh will have a serious consequence on Bangladesh’s agriculture.
Climate change hazards, such as an increase in temperature and precipitation and changes in rainfall patterns, are very common in Bangladesh. Most agricultural land in Bangladesh is surrounded by coastal areas and agriculture in those areas is highly vulnerable to climate change. Climate change has affected food security from numerous points of view, for example the increase in temperatures impacts developing conditions for plants.
Many plants will not be able to adapt to the increase in temperatures in their traditional growing regions. In Bangladesh, numerous regions are likely to see an increase in heavy rain events, heat waves, floods, and droughts, as well as a higher intensity of hurricanes, typhoons, and other major storms.
A temperature rise of 3°C would significantly reduce food supplies in enormous regions of Bangladesh. Due to temperature rise, production of wheat, Aus, and Boro rice will reduce in many parts of Bangladesh. Drought is also a major threat to food security in Bangladesh.
The average crop production reduced by twenty five to thirty percent because of the effect of drought in northwestern and southwestern regions of Bangladesh. All households pay direct taxes mid and high-income households additionally save.
Labor and capital provide income to all households, whereas agricultural returns provide income to middle-and high-income households. In addition, households receive transfers from the government, the enterprise and the rest of the world, including social security benefits, interest as property income and the enterprise.
The main objective of this study is to compare forecast baseline scenarios in macroeconomic, sectoral and household-level indicators with policy scenarios that reflect the economic outlook in Bangladesh as a whole.
The following are some of the study’s other goals. There is a consensus that climate change poses an imminent threat to development in countries around the world (especially developing countries), but there is little analysis of its potential impact. Indeed, global warming has put Bangladesh among the first countries that are predicted to be affected by climate change.
Consequently, this study aimed to analyze the potential economic and social impacts induced by a deterioration of weather conditions on economic growth and food security.
Hence, this paper applies a new approach to the economic analysis of the projected impacts of climate change in developing countries like Bangladesh, where the agricultural sector is a significant part of the GDP. This study links a dynamic CGE model with a crop model to simulate the potential economic impacts of climate change scenarios by two thousand thirty and two thousand fifty respectively.
Furthermore, this study mainly focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural sectors, which is a climate-sensitive sector and employs a new SAM that provides a more detailed account of the agricultural sector as well as a wide range of population data.
The analysis of this paper reveals that climate change has reduced both output and domestic consumption, leading to food insecurity as measured by the output of food production, consumption, and the price of commodities.
Moreover, the expected increase in commodity prices will rise, and the risk of food insecurity in Bangladesh will increase. Ultimately, as a result of higher prices, lower household incomes, and a drop in agricultural productivity, leads to a decrease in the consumption of agricultural commodities for all household categories.
Moreover, all rural households have shown the most significant reduction in income and consumption, generally leading to increased food insecurity for all households, particularly rural-poor households. Additionally, income and employment in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture are expected to become more influenced by a harsher climate in the future.
The findings of this study show that in 2030 and 2050, Bangladesh’s output will decline and prices will rise faster in most sectors. As a result, any adjustments in growing prices and reducing household consumption will pose significant difficulties to Bangladesh’s socioeconomic development. As a developing country, Bangladesh will need to focus more on climate change challenges and effects in the coming years.
(The writer is a researcher and columnist [email protected])
