Earthquake Risk in Bangladesh: A Growing Threat

Sayek Ahmed Sajib :

From the geological perspective, Bangladesh is situated at the confluence of three tectonic plates. As a result, although it is not classified as a region prone to severe earthquakes, Bangladesh remains at considerable risk of experiencing devastating seismic events. Recently, within a span of several weeks, multiple tremors have been felt across the country. These minor earthquakes serve as harbingers of potentially more significant seismic activity in the near future.

It has been measured through GPS that there is a yearly compression of 1 to 1.5 meters. Based on this, a substantial amount of seismic energy, capable of triggering a powerful earthquake of magnitude 8.2 to 9, is being stored in the region. This seismic event could occur at any moment.

Earthquake expert and former professor of the Department of Geology at Dhaka University, Dr. Syed Humayun Akhtar, has recently said that in the event of an earthquake of this magnitude, the most severe damage would occur in Dhaka city. Due to the city’s unplanned structure and the lack of adherence to building codes during construction, if even 1% of the buildings were to be damaged, it would result in the immediate loss of 200,000 lives.

Furthermore, 500,000 to 700,000 people would become trapped in various buildings. In the aftermath, there is a significant risk of fatalities due to food shortages, fires, and various other factors affecting a large portion of the population.

The impact of a major earthquake can vary significantly depending on the region during subsequent events. Large-scale earthquakes in this region generally occur once every one to one and a half thousand years. In 1762, ‘Great Arakan Earthquake’ had a magnitude of 8.5, causing extensive damage in Chattogram, Feni, and Comilla. Later, the 1897 earthquake in Assam, with a magnitude of 8.7, also had severe repercussions.

Given these historical precedents, the threat of a major earthquake in Bangladesh remains a considerable concern. According to the record of the Meteorological Department, in 2023, 41 earthquakes occurred in Bangladesh and its nearby regions. In the previous year, this number was 54.

Meanwhile, following a directive from the High Court in 2008, a committee was formed to assess the country’s preparation to face earthquake. This committee is currently operational. In another directive from the High Court, arrangements were mandated to be made for managing the aftermath of an earthquake, including how to handle the situation, the available equipment, and how to restore the city to a habitable condition.

The Disaster Management Department has already implemented two projects addressing these matters. Additionally, a 12 crore taka project is currently ongoing. Through these initiatives, the capabilities of the Fire Service, Civil Defense, and Armed Forces Division have been significantly enhanced.

It is known that the ladders available in the country can reach up to the twentieth floor. With a target of training 62,000 individuals, a total of 48,000 urban volunteers have already been trained to provide services to people in the event of a disaster like an earthquake.

The Director of the Disaster Management Department (MIM), Nitai Chandra De, has said that the possibility of a major earthquake occurring at any moment has been a subject of concern for quite some time. In this regard, we have already formulated plans for risk assessment and immediate actions to be taken. Risk assessments have been conducted for Dhaka, Chittagram, Sylhet, as well as for Rangpur, Mymensingh, Tangail, and Narayanganj.

However, experts assert that preparation for earthquake management is imperative. There is still a significant gap in this area. More attention is being paid to post-earthquake rescue operations and various acquisitions than to actual preparation.

Professor Dr. Syed Humayun Akhtar states that there is no education or awareness regarding the management of earthquakes or natural disasters. There is a lack of public awareness, and the government’s preparedness is insufficient. The government’s focus is primarily on post-earthquake rescue operations. This is a long-term plan. There is little to no investment in what is needed at the individual, family, or institutional levels before an earthquake occurs.

He states that with the billions of dollars in the budget, if just 1% of it were allocated to launching a natural hazard game on smartphones, within three to six months, everyone would learn the necessary procedures. People would understand what to do inside the house during an earthquake, how to take shelter, and what actions to take if they are outside. After educating the public, drill exercises should be organized regularly.

Mental preparation is crucial. This is a long-term plan. If we only focus on rescue operations without proper preparation, then in the event of an earthquake, if everything is destroyed, who will conduct the rescue? Plans must also be in place for sending medical teams, rescue teams, and relief efforts to the most affected areas based on priority, ensuring a proper management system.

To sum up, we have not forgotten ‘The Rana Plaza Tragedy’. On April 24, 2013, the Rana Plaza, an eight-story commercial building in Savar, collapsed, killing over 1,100 garment workers and injuring thousands more. At that time, people from all over the country were concerned and tried their best to rescue the trapped people. But the result was not satisfactory. According to the experts, if a 7-magnitude earthquake occurs in Bangladesh, 40% of buildings in Dhaka city may collapse.

What catastrophic consequences await for us, have we imagined? Earthquakes are a natural phenomenon. We cannot prevent them. In this regard, awareness and public education about earthquakes are essential. For this, both short-term and long-term plans are needed.

(The author is a Lecturer in English Cantonment College, Jashore)