By Professor Dr. Ahmad Kamruzzaman Majumder
More than 1,600 fossil fuel lobbyists were granted access to the climate talks at the COP30 conference in Belém. This is more than the delegations of any other country except host country Brazil. According to analysis by the Kick Big Polluters Out (KBPO) coalition, one in 25 participants at this year’s UN climate conference was a fossil fuel lobbyist, raising serious questions about the credibility of the COP. This is a 12% increase on last year and the highest proportion since data collection began in 2021. The total number of fossil fuel lobbyists at COP conferences has reached 7,000 in the past five years, raising serious concerns about the credibility of climate talks in an era of corporate influence, misinformation and huge oil and gas profits. Liane Vandamme, Senior Advocate for Human Rights and Climate Change at the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL), commented that this situation is indicative not of climate governance, but of corporate capture.
The EU’s position in the run-up to COP30 is also a complex one in Belém. On the one hand, EU negotiators are calling on other countries to raise their climate ambitions. On the other hand, the European Parliament voted to relax its own climate policy. The new proposal adopted on Thursday sets a target of cutting Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, including 5% of the use of foreign carbon credits, which is weaker than scientific advice. On the same day, MEPs backed a proposal to weaken supply chain rules to curb deforestation and limit the scope of corporate green policies. Although the EU is historically a major emitter of greenhouse gases and claims a strong position in the UN climate talks, it has started to “simplify” many of its ambitious policies in the last two years under the pretext of competitiveness.
On the other hand, international organisations in Belém have strengthened their call for a global agreement to phase out fossil fuels. Already 17 countries have backed the Fossil Fuel Treaty initiative, and climate activists are calling on Brazil’s COP30 presidency to strongly encourage countries to end the era of coal, oil and gas. Although countries pledged a Just Energy Transition at COP28 (Dubai, 2023), in reality this process is moving very slowly.
Christiana Figueres, a key figure in the Paris Agreement, compared the Trump administration to small children and said the United States had lost credibility on the world stage. Meanwhile, senior U.S. Democrat and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed concern about America’s absence from COP30. She blamed the lack of American presence not only on government gridlock but also on Republicans for not cooperating to send a bipartisan delegation to Brazil. President Donald Trump has withdrawn the United States from global climate diplomacy, but his administration has actively opposed measures to tackle pollution in other global forums.
Ahead of COP30, a heated debate over the definition of the word “gender” is complicating the climate talks. Women’s rights activists and many countries say it will set back long-accepted language in the UN system and hinder progress in the talks. Participating countries want to adopt a new gender action plan to better incorporate women’s experiences and gender equality into climate policy. But many countries, including Argentina, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran, are trying to define the word “gender” narrowly. In contrast, countries such as the EU, Norway, and Canada are arguing for language that includes “intersectionality” and diverse gender identities. Globally, climate change is disproportionately affecting women, leading to increased caregiving responsibilities, lack of power, increased pressure to collect food and water, and increased risk of gender-based violence. Studies have shown that by 2050, 236 million women and girls could face food insecurity as a result of climate change.
Fossil fuel emissions have reached record highs, yet many countries have taken little action to prevent a severe global heatwave. The new NDCs submitted by governments for the COP30 climate talks in Brazil are still on track to reach a catastrophic 2.6°C warming by the end of the century, well above the Paris Agreement limit, according to a Climate Action Tracker update. Only 100 countries have updated their NDCs so far. Fossil fuel emissions are set to rise by about 1% in 2025, according to the Global Carbon Project. While emissions growth has slowed in the past decade and the expansion of renewables has accelerated, they have not yet kept pace with the growth in global energy demand. The Earth’s temperature has already risen by 1.3°C compared to pre-industrial levels, making storms, wildfires, droughts and extreme weather more intense. While the expected temperature reductions since the Paris Agreement have been modest, the current trajectory is still dangerously high.
Climate action has long been a key policy priority for Europe. As negotiators gather in Brazil for COP30, the stakes for Europe’s leadership in tackling the climate crisis are dwindling. The situation in Paris was very different a decade ago when a landmark agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C was reached at COP21. The Paris Climate Agreement paved the way for the European Green Deal in 2019, and this agreement enshrines the EU’s ambition of climate neutrality by 2050 into law and introduces the world’s first comprehensive plan to achieve it, including a robust set of pricing, regulatory and funding mechanisms.
COP30 launched the Belém Health Action Plan, the world’s first international health-focused climate adaptation framework. It focuses on risk monitoring, policymaking, capacity building and the development of digital health technologies. Speakers at a side event at the COP30 conference said that health systems are weak and human lives are at risk from the impacts of severe climate change. It is essential that international funding is fair, transparent and accessible. The Climate and Health Funders Coalition has allocated an initial $300 million. Experts say India needs $643 billion by 2030, and health adaptation funding in Bangladesh is still inadequate. At another side event held at the Bangladesh Pavilion at COP30, experts highlighted the importance of locally led nature-based solutions. They say that ecosystem-based adaptation can be scaled up by combining science, local knowledge and policy. The examples of the Sundarbans and Hakaluki Haor were highlighted in the discussion. Participants stressed the need for equitable and predictable financing to build long-term resilience, biodiversity conservation and the inclusion of local communities. Speakers believe that local initiatives can lead the way in global climate solutions.
Global climate policy and leadership remain complex and uncertain on the fifth day of COP30. The influence of fossil fuel lobbyists, political deadlock, policy rollbacks and gender-based debates are slowing implementation. This suggests that strong political will, financing, technical cooperation and inclusive policies are needed now to keep the world within the 1.5°C limit. The COP30 conference is a reminder that time is running out, and the opportunity to turn global leadership into reality is now.
[The writer is a Dean, Faculty of Science; Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Stamford University Bangladesh and Chairman, Centre for Atmospheric Pollution Studies (CAPS).]
