Day 10 of COP30: Global Divide on Fossil Fuel Transition is Intensifying

By Professor Dr. Ahmad Kamruzzaman Majumder

The tenth day of COP30 concluded with intense competition, resulting in Turkey being selected as the host of COP31. Papua New Guinea expressed deep disappointment after Australia withdrew from its plan to co-host next year’s UN climate conference (COP31) with Pacific Island nations. Due to Turkey’s uncompromising stance, it was ultimately chosen as the host country. Tuvalu’s former Prime Minister called the decision “a sign of Australia’s lack of commitment to climate justice” and urged a reassessment of Australia’s relationship with Pacific nations. Although Australia claimed that even without hosting, it would continue pushing Pacific climate issues to the center of discussions, regional leaders believe the fight for climate justice in the Pacific will continue despite losing this opportunity.

Throughout the day, Brazil’s President Lula attempted to unite all parties to advance the global roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels and ending deforestation. Scientists warned that without quick action, the world is heading toward a dangerous crisis. COP President André Corrêa do Lago said that most countries have deep interests tied to the fossil-fuel phase-out issue. Colombia’s former environment minister Susana Muhamad criticized the UN climate talks for turning into “a massive convention to protect fossil fuels.” Mohamed Adow, Director of Power Shift Africa, urged developed countries to take greater responsibility for climate finance. Papua New Guinea’s foreign minister Justin Tkatchenko dismissed the entire COP process as ineffective and a “talk-fest” that lacks accountability for major polluters. Pacific Island nations have long criticized their limited influence at COP and the absence of real solutions, especially against the backdrop of rising sea levels and increasing climate disasters.

Astrid Puentes Riaño, UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to a Clean, Healthy, and Sustainable Environment, presented a clear list of international legal obligations that place human rights and environmental protection at the center of COP negotiations. She said the discussions remain overly technical and driven by economic interests, even though the International Court of Justice has already declared that a healthy environment is a prerequisite for all human rights and is binding on states. According to Puentes, recognized human rights—such as clean air, a safe climate, biodiversity and ecosystem protection, safe food and water, a pollution-free environment, access to information, public participation, and access to justice—must be ensured. Advisory opinions from the International Court of Justice, the Law of the Sea Tribunal, and the Inter-American Court of Human Rights have clarified that all states are obligated to exercise strict caution and protect the environment in addressing the climate crisis, whether or not they are parties to climate treaties. She emphasized that all COP30 agreements—just transition, adaptation, and climate finance—must be grounded in international law, guided by IPCC scientific data, the acknowledgment that fossil fuels are the root cause of the crisis, and adherence to previous global commitments.

COP30 President and Brazil’s seasoned climate diplomat André Corrêa do Lago said that to narrow gaps in fossil-fuel transition negotiations, oil-producing countries must recognize the growing momentum of clean energy, and developed countries must provide more certainty in climate financing. He noted that developing nations expect fair financial and technological support from developed countries, which could come not only from new funding but also from more effective use of existing funds, multilateral development banks, the Green Climate Fund, or innovative mechanisms such as debt-for-nature swaps. The global transition away from fossil fuels is now the biggest dividing line at COP30. While more than 80 countries demand a roadmap for this transition, strong opposition from oil-dependent nations such as Saudi Arabia threatens the final decision, since COP agreements require unanimous consent. Do Lago emphasized that countries must resolve internal conflicts and set their own net-zero goals, because declining future demand for oil—driven by electric vehicle expansion and other factors—is inevitable. Therefore, nations must accept this reality and take effective action to confront the climate crisis.

Denmark has recently announced one of the world’s most essential climate goals, crucial for global climate planning. The wind-rich Nordic nation has pledged to reduce carbon emissions by at least 82% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels—surpassing the UK’s 81% goal and far ahead of the EU’s 66.3–72.5% target range. While many developed countries have set net-zero targets for mid-century, climate scientists warn that delays in action could lead to excessive pollution levels by 2040–2050, making net-zero goals difficult to achieve. In Europe, however, green policies and climate laws face political pushback. Recently, the European Parliament weakened regulations aimed at stopping deforestation and requiring companies to present mandatory just-transition plans. This shift stems from unexpected support from center-right and far-right parties along with other political complexities, weakening the influence of historically centrist European coalitions. Even so, Europe has not abandoned its climate goals. Under the EU’s new target, greenhouse-gas emissions will be reduced by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, with 5% allowed to come from foreign carbon credits. This demonstrates that while medium-term and incremental steps matter, ambitious goals and their implementation roadmaps are central to driving global climate action.

Meanwhile, China’s senior climate adviser Wang Yi stated that China is committed to the energy transformation necessary to curb global warming, but it does not wish to lead the effort alone without the participation of the United States. He said China would provide more financial support to vulnerable nations, but its objective is to advance low-carbon or green transitions in coordination with other countries. Wang noted that China has made slow but steady progress in reducing carbon emissions and will continue to do so by promoting renewable energy, green hydrogen, green ammonia, electric vehicles, and new power-grid systems for socio-economic development. He emphasized that due to different national circumstances, a single universal pathway cannot work; each country should have its own policy and roadmap for transformation. He urged Europe and other wealthy nations to step up to meet the $1.3 trillion climate-finance goal for developing countries. The EU has imposed strict tariffs and trade barriers on China, hindering the expansion of alternative technologies. China now plays a pivotal role in global climate negotiations, as President Lula of Brazil has launched an initiative at COP30 to reduce global fossil-fuel dependence. Coordination challenges also arise because China is not aligned with oil-dependent countries and others like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Bolivia—posing potential diplomatic hurdles.

[The Writer is a Dean, Faculty of Science; Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Stamford University Bangladesh and Chairman, Center for Atmospheric Pollution Studies (CAPS).]