COP30 Day 9: Call for Fossil Fuel Phase-Out and a Climate Roadmap

By Professor Dr. Ahmad Kamruzzaman Majumder

The ninth day of COP30 was particularly significant, with political tensions, social resistance and hints at a future deal. Criticism has grown over the conference’s “exclusion zone” for indigenous protesters. This year, hundreds of industry and agricultural lobbyists have also been actively involved in high-level political discussions. For the first time, the draft of a potential final agreement includes the “phase-out” of fossil fuels, a move that many countries see as a positive development. Ministers from more than 80 countries, including Sierra Leone, Kenya and Germany, called for a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels. Even the UK’s Energy Secretary, Ed Miliband, strongly supported their demand. Representatives from the Marshall Islands, Vanuatu and the UK said there was no alternative to reducing reliance on fossil fuels to meet the 1.5°C target and strengthen weak NDCs. Although Brazil initially did not put the issue on the formal agenda, the roadmap has been included in the new draft. Many countries still find the draft weak, and they want a clearer and more implementation-oriented plan. The roadmap will not be the same for all countries, as each country faces different energy realities and development needs. However, all countries agree on the need and importance of a Just Energy Transition. Although it is difficult to reach a consensus due to strong opposition from some petrostates, including Saudi Arabia, the supporting countries believe they are in the majority. There are also differences within Brazil. While President Lula has talked about reducing fossil fuel dependence, part of the government is leaning towards expanding the use of oil and gas. However, Environment Minister Marina Silva describes the roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels as a “moral response” to the climate crisis.

Just Transition has long been a topic of discussion at the UN Climate Change Conference, but there is still no obligation for countries to monitor the impact of policy changes on workers or share experiences. The new proposal calls for a truly just transition framework that is coordinated, rapid and supported at the global level to fill this gap. The formal support of the G77 and China last week brought major progress to the agenda. According to experts, effective implementation of just transition commitments will increase support for climate action, because ensuring not only new green jobs, but also the quality, stability, pay and benefits of those jobs will be key challenges. Workers will not be interested in moving to new green sectors if jobs are of lower quality than in the current economy, so ensuring worker protections in policy changes is now the most important thing.

Meanwhile, the lack of funding from rich countries to the Climate Adaptation Fund has frustrated developing country representatives. There has also been disagreement over how to measure progress on climate adaptation. On the other hand, global youth leadership is playing a significant role in the conference. At the third and final youth-led climate forum, more than 30,000 young people from more than 100 countries around the world presented the “Global Youth Statement,” the largest collective climate call by children and young people to date. The statement calls for a rapid, just and complete fossil fuel phase-out, ensuring intergenerational justice, equitable climate finance, and declaring adaptation a “moral and political priority.”

Ukraine is set to seek nearly $44 billion in compensation from Russia for excess carbon emissions and environmental damage caused by the ongoing war. This is the first time a country has formally made such a claim because of the increasing emissions that are causing global warming. Pavlo Kartashov, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine, said that the war has caused serious damage to water, land and forests, as well as the release of large amounts of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases, due to the use of large amounts of fossil fuels, cement, steel, destruction of forest resources and fires. He said at the COP30 conference in Brazil that compensation for these losses is being demanded internationally.

Bhutan, a Buddhist democratic monarchy located in the lap of the eastern Himalayas and a center of biodiversity, is one of the world’s ambitious climate leaders. Bhutanese Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay said that the key to Bhutan’s success as the world’s first carbon-negative country is its high priority for people’s happiness, well-being and spiritual connection with nature. Despite limited resources and geographical challenges, the country has made environmental protection, climate action, social development and the preservation of cultural heritage national priorities. He expressed his opinion that this is also an example for wealthy Western countries. Bhutan is playing a leading role in achieving the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement through ambitious mitigation plans across all sectors, including hydro, solar, wind and green hydrogen. The Himalayan nation of just 7.5 million people has a 72% forest cover that plays a significant role in carbon sequestration, and its constitution mandates a minimum forest cover of 60%. But climate finance challenges are growing as aid to graduate from the LDC category declines, and as mountain warming, glacier melting and flood risks increase. Last year, Bhutan joined Panama, Suriname and Madagascar in forming the G-Zero alliance of carbon-negative and carbon-neutral countries to influence global climate negotiations. Tobgay said that the goal of everything should be human happiness, health and the security of future generations, not GDP or emissions reductions.

The Caribbean Slavery Compensation Commission, on its first official visit to the UK, said it was not seeking to “bankrupt” the British Treasury or claim trillions of pounds, but rather to seek mutually beneficial restorative justice solutions to address the long-term damage caused by colonial rule and slavery. More than 12.5 million Africans were kidnapped and sold into slavery in the Americas between the 15th and 19th centuries, with the impact still felt in Caribbean societies and economies. The region’s governments are demanding a formal apology, debt relief and other forms of financial compensation. At COP30, human rights and environmental groups are also calling for the issue of compensation to be discussed, citing the roots of global warming in colonialism and slavery.

No clear decision has yet been made on whether next year’s COP will be held in Australia or Turkey. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has said his country will not block Turkey from hosting COP31, but he will continue to fight to protect the interests of Pacific island nations. If Australia and Turkey do not agree on the 2026 COP host, the conference could be held in Germany under UN rules, which would send a negative message to global climate unity. Albanese also said that Australia would not veto if Turkey hosts, but there would be demands for additional funding for special leaders and the Climate Resilience Fund for vulnerable countries in the Pacific. Although there is no sign of compromise from Turkey and President Erdogan has refused to withdraw his candidacy. The competition between the two countries is still ongoing, with Western Europe and other nations supporting Australia with 23 votes.

[The writer is a Dean, Faculty of Science; Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Stamford University Bangladesh and Chairman, Center for Atmospheric Pollution Studies (CAPS).]