Abu Jakir :
Uncertainty is once again looming over Bangladesh’s political landscape as doubts grow regarding the feasibility of holding the next general election, tentatively scheduled for February.
Despite earlier signs of consensus among key political actors, recent developments have revealed persistent mistrust and renewed disagreement over the reform process and electoral framework – raising concerns about the prospects for a timely and credible vote.
Just weeks ago, optimism had surged following a joint declaration in London on 12 June by Chief Adviser to the interim government, Professor Muhammad Yunus, and BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman.
The statement, though conditional, appeared to signal a shared understanding to move forward with elections in February, lifting some of the uncertainty that had clouded the country’s political future.
In the wake of the announcement, opposition parties – including the BNP – began preparing in earnest for the upcoming polls. The National Citizens’ Party (NCP), a political force born from the student-led movement that toppled the Awami League government earlier this year, also initiated nationwide campaigns in anticipation of the vote.
However, that optimism is now waning.
In recent days, political leaders from across the spectrum have voiced concerns over whether the groundwork necessary to hold free, fair, and timely elections has been adequately laid. At the heart of the issue are disagreements over the electoral framework, voting methods, and the pace of institutional reforms.
The Election Commission has reiterated its commitment to holding the election between February and April. “We are on track,” said Chief Election Commissioner A.M.M. Nasir Uddin in a recent statement. “There is no delay on our part.”
Yet, others remain sceptical. BNP Vice Chairman Asaduzzaman Ripon warned that without broader political consensus on key reforms, it will be “difficult” for the Commission to organise elections within the proposed timeline.
A contentious debate has emerged over the electoral system itself. While the BNP and its allies support the current first-past-the-post model for parliamentary constituencies, several other parties – including left-leaning and Islamist groups – are advocating for a shift to proportional representation.
Some have also suggested that local government elections should precede national polls, further complicating the political calculus.
The interim government’s stance on these proposals remains unclear, adding to the growing uncertainty. Analysts caution that without a coherent electoral framework agreed upon by all stakeholders, the fragile political environment could deteriorate further.
Jamaat-e-Islami chief Shafiqur Rahman expressed doubts about the current electoral timetable, citing a worsening law and order situation.
Referring to a recent incident in Patgram, where a mob stormed a police station and freed two convicts, he questioned the feasibility of holding elections under such conditions. “The environment must be prepared first. Reform must come before any election – no ifs, no buts,” he said.
Calls for justice and accountability have also intensified. Speaking at a public meeting in Bogura on Saturday, NCP Convener Nahid Islam demanded legal action against those responsible for the violent crackdowns during the popular uprising earlier this year.
“Justice must come before elections,” he declared. “We must hold accountable those who ordered and carried out the shootings – including Sheikh Hasina and her officers.”
Nahid added that the NCP’s upcoming policy document, the “July Charter,” would commemorate the victims of the uprising and outline structural reforms to be implemented before any national vote.
Concerns have also been raised about the neutrality of law enforcement agencies.
At a roundtable discussion at the National Press Club, Mahmudur Rahman, editor of Amar Desh, questioned the capacity of the police to ensure a fair electoral process. “Before the uprising, the police were used as a tool of repression. Now they are demoralised. That’s the reality,” he said.
With fundamental disagreements between parties and the election timeline increasingly uncertain, observers warn that Bangladesh may be entering another phase of political instability unless consensus can be restored.
