Staff Reporter :
Key crops like rice and wheat in Bangladesh may see production declines of up to 20% due to ongoing climate change impacts, according to a new study. The study underscores a troubling trend, noting that since the early 2000s, maximum temperatures have been steadily rising, with several instances surpassing 100°F (37.8°C) between 2014 and 2024.
This shift towards hotter climates, driven by carbon emissions from fossil fuels, transportation, industry, and agriculture, is increasing the frequency and severity of heatwave.
The study, titled “The Impact of Heatwaves in Bangladesh: Historical Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Projections,” was conducted by the Environment and Social Development Organization (ESDO) and unveiled at a media briefing at the Women’s Voluntary Association (WVA) auditorium in Dhaka on Tuesday.
Citing four key factors, the research projects that if current trends continue, temperatures during heatwaves could exceed 45°C by 2030 and surpass 46°C by 2050. These factors include:
1. Geographical location in the tropical monsoon climate zone, exacerbated by global climate change.
2. Increased carbon emissions from fossil fuels and industries contributing to greenhouse gas buildup.
3. Oceanic influences such as El Niño events altering regional weather patterns.
4. Natural climate variability amplified by human activities.
These factors have collectively intensified recent heatwaves, emphasizing the critical intersection of local geography, global emissions, oceanic phenomena, and human-induced climate change impacts.
The study indicates that the world is rapidly transitioning from colder to warmer periods, driven by human activities accelerating climate change and making heatwaves more extreme. In Bangladesh, this shift means increasingly frequent and severe heatwaves, with both daily maximum and minimum temperatures rising significantly. If unchecked, future warm periods could become intolerable for humans.
While the natural progression of climate change cannot be halted, its impact can be mitigated by reducing activities that contribute to global warming and implementing effective adaptation measures. This includes improving agricultural practices, enhancing urban planning, and strengthening health services to protect people from escalating extreme heat.
The research also found that Bangladesh has experienced a significant rise in average temperatures over the past 44 years, with an increase of 0.5°C (0.9°F). Projections indicate that by 2030, the average temperature could rise by another 0.7°C, and by 2050, it might increase by 1.4°C (2.5°F).
Bangladesh urgently needs adaptation measures in agriculture, urban planning, and healthcare to combat the escalating heatwave impacts. International support and funding are crucial to build resilience against these extreme conditions and protect health, agriculture, and urban environments.
“ESDO has based this projection on previous trends, and if these trends continue, the future temperatures will be intolerable for us. Comprehensive, long-term policies should be implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance resilience against future heatwaves,” said ESDO Chairperson Syed Marghub Morshed, former secretary of the Government.
Dr. Shahriar Hossain, Senior Policy and Technical Advisor for ESDO, added, “The current extreme heatwave in Bangladesh, with temperatures exceeding 40°C, underscores the urgent need to combat climate change, as millions suffer health issues and critical sectors face severe challenges.”