Staff Reporter :
The General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission has expressed cautious optimism about the state of Bangladesh’s economy in the opening month of the current fiscal year (FY26), citing early indicators of recovery despite ongoing structural and external headwinds.
In its July economic update, GED highlights a modest rebound supported by easing inflation, a slight appreciation of the taka, and a rise in remittance inflows.
However, the report also underscores the continued impact of political uncertainty, subdued industrial activity, weak investment sentiment, and recent reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States.
Multilateral development partners have downgraded Bangladesh’s growth outlook for FY26. The World Bank now forecasts GDP growth in the range of 3.3 per cent to 4.1 per cent, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects growth at 3.9 per cent.
A moderate recovery to around 5.1 per cent-5.3 per cent is expected in the following fiscal year, contingent upon policy stability and global economic conditions.
On the inflation front, the report notes a gradual decline, largely driven by falling food prices. Nonetheless, the continued rise in rice prices-particularly medium and coarse varieties-remains a key concern, with rice accounting for nearly 50 per cent of overall food inflation in June.
The report attributes this trend to increased input costs, post-harvest losses, transport bottlenecks, and market hoarding.
