Abu Jakir :
The possibility of a political resurgence by the Awami League, under the leadership of deposed autocrat Sheikh Hasina, has become one of the most debated topics in Bangladesh’s political discourse.
With the next general election fast approaching, various local and international actors are reportedly working behind the scenes to bring the party back into the political fold.
However, the key question remains: can the Awami League survive without Hasina, or is its rehabilitation simply an illusion?
Dr. Yunus, the Chief Adviser of the interim government, recently clarified that there is no intention to ban the Awami League as a party.
However, a significant portion of the country’s political stakeholders – including student leaders, major political parties, and analysts – have called for a temporary ban on the party. Their demand is that the Awami League must face trial and remain out of politics for several terms before it could be considered for reintegration.
As Bangladesh moves towards elections, the stakes are high. The Awami League, accused of undermining democratic norms, dismantling the electoral system, and orchestrating widespread political violence during its 15-year rule, now faces substantial opposition.
Political analysts suggest that the party is unlikely to survive without Sheikh Hasina, as her departure would likely cause the organisation to fragment beyond repair. Many within the party are concerned that without Hasina, the Awami League would disintegrate entirely.
Awami League leaders and supporters have dismissed the notion of a “reformed” or “refined” Awami League under new leadership. Some reports suggest that military officials are attempting to facilitate the party’s participation in the upcoming elections, but their efforts have been met with strong opposition from within the ranks of the party itself.
Hasnat Abdullah, a leader of the newly formed National Citizen Party (NCP), recently claimed on social media that India is orchestrating a conspiracy to rehabilitate the Awami League under a rebranded image.
Speaking at an emergency press conference, Abdullah criticised recent discussions between senior military officials and Awami League representatives, calling it inappropriate interference in politics. “Politics should be determined by politicians, and decisions on its direction must remain in their hands,” he asserted.
Meanwhile, Sheikh Hasina faces over 300 charges, including murder, attempted murder, enforced disappearances, and abductions. More than 200 of these cases are related to allegations of murder.
Given these serious legal challenges, many are questioning whether she can realistically return to politics. More importantly, the public’s sentiment, shaped by years of political suppression and human rights abuses, raises the question of whether the people of Bangladesh would welcome her back.
The July Uprising, which resulted in over 2,000 deaths, marked a crucial shift in the country’s political trajectory. Critics argue that for nearly two decades, the Awami League’s rule was characterised by authoritarian policies, extrajudicial killings, and suppression of opposition forces. Today, public sentiment appears overwhelmingly in favour of justice, with growing demands for the complete rejection of Hasina and her party.
Despite the widespread opposition, there are still some within the Awami League who believe in Hasina’s return, pointing to India’s geopolitical influence as a key factor. Mohosin Khan, an Awami League activist, expressed confidence in India’s ability to intervene in Bangladesh’s political affairs.
“India is a regional superpower. If they want, they can bring Hasina back into politics,” he said, referring to recent Indian media reports that seemingly advocate for her return.
However, political analysts argue that such expectations are unrealistic. “Sheikh Hasina is a spent force,” said Taib Ahmed, a political analyst and former journalist. “Those who believe in her return are living in a fool’s paradise. The people have not forgotten her government’s role in the July massacre, and they are unlikely to accept her again.”
BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia’s adviser, Syed Moazzem Hossain Alal, echoed this sentiment. “She has already proved herself to be a fascist, autocratic ruler. The people of Bangladesh do not want her in politics anymore,” he stated. “If she refuses to accept this reality, she is welcome to return from India and see for herself.”
The scepticism surrounding Hasina’s political future extends beyond Bangladesh. Srimati Radha Dutta, a professor of international relations at O.P. Jindal Global University, told BBC Bangla that public resentment towards Hasina is deeply entrenched. “The anger and disgust people feel toward her have been building for years. This is not something that will fade overnight,” she said.
Even within diplomatic circles in New Delhi, there seems to be an acknowledgment that Hasina’s political influence is waning. “India may have accepted the new political landscape and might not have the will or leverage to bring Hasina back to power,” Dutta added.
While Chief Adviser Dr. Yunus has confirmed that the Awami League as a party will not be banned, individuals accused of serious crimes-including murder and crimes against humanity-will face prosecution.
His statement has sparked widespread debate, with protests erupting in Dhaka and other cities demanding justice before any attempt is made to reintegrate the Awami League into the political fold.
At an Iftar gathering on Friday, BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman urged the interim government to prevent fugitive members of the deposed regime from returning to power.
Meanwhile, Asif Mahmud Sajib Bhuiyan, an advisor to the Ministry of Youth & Sports and the Ministry of Labour & Employment, questioned the logic behind calls for inclusivity. “Since when have we become more democratic than Germany and Italy?” he asked, drawing a comparison between the Awami League’s governance and historical fascist regimes.
Amid rising crime rates and social unrest in post-Hasina Bangladesh, security analysts suggest that remnants of the Awami League and its student wing, Chhatra League, may be orchestrating disruptions to destabilise the interim government.
Intelligence reports indicate that senior Awami League leaders who fled to India are allegedly financing and coordinating these activities through encrypted communication channels.
“The defeated forces of 2024 are actively engaged in criminal activities to create anarchy,” said Chief Adviser Dr. Yunus in a recent statement.
Rezaul Karim Mallick, Chief of the Detective Branch (DB) of the Dhaka Metropolitan Police, reinforced these concerns. “There are clear indications that Awami League operatives and their allies are behind recent spikes in criminal activities. But I assure you, there will be no place for fascist forces in Bangladesh,” he declared.
As the interim government works to stabilise the nation and prepare for elections, the debate over the Awami League’s future remains a central issue. While some advocate for political inclusivity, a growing faction insists that accountability must come first. With public sentiment heavily against Hasina, her return to politics appears more improbable than ever.
