Dr. Forqan Uddin Ahmed:
The government is planning to expand social safety net programs and increase the amount of allowances in the upcoming budget. There are considerations to raise about 10 types of allowances, including old-age, widow, abused wives, and disabled persons’ allowances. For instance, old-age, widow, and abused wives’ allowances may be increased by BDT 150-200.
Currently, 6 million elderly citizens receive a monthly allowance of BDT 600, and 2.775 million widows and abused women receive BDT 550. Some 3.234 million disabled people receive BDT 850 monthly. The government also provides allowances to improve the quality of life of hijra (third gender), bedes (river gypsies), tea workers, and other marginalized groups – these may also increase. Additionally, allocations for ultra-poor employment programs, food-friendly schemes, the Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) program, and the National Service Program may be expanded. Based on proposals submitted by the Ministry of Social Welfare, appropriate measures will be taken. However, due to misinformation and statistical discrepancies, targets are often not met, and intended goals are hindered. It is hoped that this time the selection process will be free from political influence and pressure.
In the revised budget of the current fiscal year, agricultural subsidies have been increased from BDT 21 billion to BDT 28 billion. This increased allocation is expected to continue in the upcoming budget. In the same vein, food subsidies in the revised budget stand at BDT 8.59 billion. This is to ensure the continuous operation of OMS (Open Market Sales), TCB (Trading Corporation of Bangladesh), and food-friendly programs. These allocations are expected to increase in the next budget as well. Officials from the Ministry of Finance have indicated that employment growth is sluggish. To address this, special attention will be paid to employment generation in the next budget. Although economists recommended keeping the budget below BDT 8 trillion, the need for employment creation is prompting a slightly larger budget. If public expenditure is overly reduced, employment opportunities will shrink. At the same time, efforts will be made to reduce borrowing from the banking sector to ensure that entrepreneurs do not face funding constraints.
According to data from the Ministry of Finance, the preliminary expenditure plan for fiscal year 2025-26 is BDT 8.3 trillion. This estimate is based on data and budget demands received from various organizations and institutions. In an interview with Samakal, Dr. Zaidi Sattar, Chairman of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), said that some priority-based economic reforms must be included in the new budget. Particularly, reforms are needed in various functions of the National Board of Revenue (NBR), both in direct and indirect taxation. Due to high tariffs, foreign investment is discouraged, and there is no diversification in export products. He added that unless institutions like the NBR are reformed, economic progress will stall. However, the reasons behind recent unrest within such a critical financial institution as NBR must also be questioned – whether there was any provocation or incitement, as this has caused widespread concern about its potential impact on the upcoming budget.
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), overall inflation in the country has been above 9per cent for more than two and a half years. In January, overall inflation stood at 9.94per cent, while food inflation was 10.72per cent. In July last year, food inflation peaked at 14.10per cent. The government aims to reduce average inflation to 6.5per cent by the end of the 2025-26 fiscal year. Therefore, along with a contractionary monetary policy, cost-saving measures in public spending will continue. No politically motivated projects will be undertaken. Officials involved in budget preparation have stated that unless absolutely necessary, the government will avoid printing money to finance loans. Import duties and taxes on essential goods will continue to be reduced. Additionally, barriers at every level of the supply chain will be addressed. To prevent abnormal price increases, the Competition Commission will be strengthened. The Macroeconomic Division of the Finance Ministry has undertaken research to determine further steps for controlling inflation, and some measures from this research will be included in the next budget.
Commodity prices, the national budget, and the standard of living are deeply interconnected. A family’s ability to manage daily life depends on its income, basic needs, and the affordability of essential goods. When prices remain within reach, life is manageable. However, when costs rise beyond people’s financial capacity, poor and ultra-poor families face hunger, instability, and distress. Soaring commodity prices disrupt public life, often worsened by hoarders and profiteers who destabilize markets for profit. In today’s economic scenario, a balanced strategy is essential that links effective market regulation with practical budget implementation. Without this coordination, socio-economic progress becomes increasingly difficult. Global economic uncertainty makes it even more challenging to implement the upcoming budget.
If the authorities manage the market properly, it is possible to control the rising prices of essential goods. The profiteering mindset of middlemen must change. Their encouragement must be discouraged. Consumers should reduce consumption when prices spike.
Coordination must be ensured in production, import, and supply. Price hikes are nothing new, but their impacts on public life are often overlooked. Dishonest traders, black marketers, and profiteers are to blame. Hence, the government must maintain year-round monitoring. There must be vigilance in markets and public awareness. Regular monitoring and mobile courts must be employed.
We know socio-economic development is not possible without a balanced relationship between budget and market conditions. It is hoped that the new budget will curb inflation. Will the 2025-26 budget reduce or increase public suffering due to inflation? How much attention will be paid to the interests of the middle class? Will the budget prioritize poverty alleviation or infrastructure development? What importance will be given to employment and small businesses?
(The writer is former Deputy Director General, Bangladesh
Ansar and VDP).
