Bangladesh at a cross-road

M. Serajul Islam :
(From previous issue)
Dangers for the economy: The dangers of the country moving ahead with a government devoid of legitimacy do not need to be stressed. The other danger of the country’s economic future is equally critical. Most economists and observers, particularly the CPD has underscored this danger when the forecast that the GDP growth would fall to 5.8% if the political problems created by the January 5th elections were not addressed. The AL led government correctly stated that Bangladesh is no longer an aid dependent country. However, Bangladesh is overwhelmingly dependent on cooperation with external actors for its economic well-being. The urgings of Bangladesh’s development partners for early elections should not be scorned on misplaced sense of national pride. Nor should these urgings be taken lightly. Most importantly, the opposition is not likely to agree to the ruling party’s desire to take the January 5th elections as a “mandate” for governing for 5 years and the current calm in politics could be merely the lull before the storm.
Bangladesh at a Historical Crossroad: Without apportioning blame, the country today finds itself in a situation that it never faced in the past. The constitution, the spirit of 1971, the aspirations of the people, is at stake. The country is at a historical crossroad. The nation must come together as it did in 1971 to tread the correct path because if it does not, the future could be disastrous. There are none of the pressures upon the government as there was before January 5th to go ahead and hold the elections. There are none on the opposition to force the government from holding the elections. Now it is time for them to get together and enter into dialogue with only one concern, to restore dignity to governance and assure the future of the country and its people.
Post January 5th moves of the BNP and ruling party : Dialogue does not seem imminent: The BNP made some positive moves to enable legitimacy to be restored to the government through another “inclusive” election. It stated that it would not initiate any movement in the next 6 months that would push Bangladesh towards violence. It also stated that it would reconsider its links with Jamaat. It seems that the party is under advise of Bangladesh’s development partners who want a peaceful environment for an “inclusive” election. The ruling party that had stated before the elections that the January 5th elections were a constitutional necessity that made many understand that it would hold another elections afterwards is now stating that it has a “mandate” of the people for five years. Nevertheless from time to time, some of its leaders are also talking of mid-term elections but imposing many restrictions. The President in his address at the opening session of the 10th parliament also hinted at negotiations for a new election. Nevertheless, those from the ruling party are giving many conditions from the BNP such as leaving Jamaat and renouncing violence.
Dialogue not imminent : Nation must come together for return of voting right to save the country from sliding towards (grave) danger: Thus a dialogue at this stage between the two parties does not seem imminent. Nevertheless without one, the present seemingly peaceful political situation in the country could just be the lull before a dangerous storm. It would be naive to conclude that the BNP and Jamaat would accept the January 5th elections as the end of their movement and return home. If moves are not underway before their six months moratorium on movement is over, the country could slide to a political situation much more dangerous than what the country witnessed around the January 5th elections.
To save the country from such a predicament, it would be the responsibility of all Bangladeshis whose basic and fundamental democratic right to vote was taken away from them to come together and demand the return of their right. This would be in the spirit of democracy; in the spirit of our glorious liberation war and in respect of the memory of those who sacrificed their lives in 1971. Therefore, the nation should make the movement for an “inclusive” national election without delay its movement and not leave it to be BNP/Jamaat to save the country from sliding to a civil war.
New elections the only way to bring Bangladesh back on track: The antidote to this doomsday scenario is palpably simple. It is the democratic way out by arranging a new election for the country.
The sooner this is done, the better it is for the country. Unfortunately, left to the two mainstream parties, this would be not easily achieved. Therefore it is time for the country’s civil society to pull its weight and make it a national demand, which is, if democracy is what the country fought for in 1971, the demand to stop Bangladesh going over the edge. It would be too naive that a government in office with 5% votes of the people, where the opposition would have, even by assessment of many in the ruling party, would have won a free, fair and inclusive elections, would last 5 years. If it attempts to remain in office without giving elections, it would be equally naive to believe that the opposition would allow that. The consequences would be a political situation worse than what the country experienced in days leading to January 5th elections.
A lasting solution to problem of holding legitimate elections: January 5th elections have placed before the nation the need to consider a lasting solution to the issue of holding fair and free elections. Towards that, it is urgent that the stakeholders consider strengthening the Election Commission so that it does not become subservient to the dictates of the party in power. Simultaneously, the administration, both civil and politics, must also be made independent and placed under the Election Commission modelled after an Election Commission in India for instance.
[ Concluded]
[Ambassador M. Sirajul Islam, Member, The Dhaka Forum – a Think Tank – placed the paper at the Roundtable talk on 8th February, 2014 held in the city]